A special holiday NFL Saturday slate kicks off with a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) and the New England Patriots (3-12). The Chargers, as 4-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, can clinch a playoff berth with a win, while the Patriots will look to play spoiler in a rebuilding year.
Can Jim Harbaugh lead his team to the postseason in his first year on the West Coast? Or will Drake Maye and the Patriots have the last laugh? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Chargers vs Patriots Odds Week 17
Chargers vs Patriots, Dec. 28, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | -4 (-110) | -225 | O42.5 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | +4 (-110) | +185 | U42.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Dec. 24 at Caesars Sportsbook
Chargers vs Patriots Picks - Week 17
Over 42.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Chargers defeated the Broncos in a surprise shootout last week in a Thursday night battle that ended 34-27. While the overall yards and touchdowns don’t stack up with the MVP candidates this year, Justin Herbert has put together a stellar season with 18 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s PFF’s third-highest-graded passer this year and ranks third with a 6.3% big-time throw rate.
Los Angeles’ offensive line has let Herbert down at times. While the tackle duo of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt is among the league’s best young tandems, the interior offensive line play has been inconsistent at best. However, the Patriots rank just 30th in pressure rate this season, so Herbert should have plenty of time to stand in the pocket and deliver strikes downfield.
One benefactor of Herbert having time in the pocket should be wide receiver Ladd McConkey. In his rookie season, McConkey has already been one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, ranking top-seven in separation rate and missed tackles forced per route run per Fantasy Points Data. The Patriots rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, so this game provides an excellent opportunity for McConkey and the Chargers passing game to thrive.
The Patriots can match the Chargers’ offensive output here thanks to inspiring play from rookie quarterback Drake Maye. If you turn on the All 22 of Maye’s games, he looks like a young Josh Allen with the elite playmaking gene you simply can’t teach. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had much help, as the Patriots have a subpar pass-catching group and rank just 30th in pass-block win rate.
However, the Chargers rank just 25th in pressure and pass-rush win rates, so Maye should have more time to operate in the pocket. After a stellar start to the year, the Chargers’ defense has begun to slip in the advanced metrics. It’s a well-coached and well-schemed unit, but it lacks the high-end talent to maintain elite defensive production. The Chargers now rank 13th in defensive DVOA on the year.
The Chargers’ offense has been inconsistent, but this game provides an excellent opportunity to take advantage of a weak Patriots defense. That said, New England can match scoring with Maye providing upside through the air and on the ground. This total seems low for how well the quarterbacks are playing, so the OVER looks like the play here.
Chargers vs Patriots Prop Picks Week 17
Ladd McConkey OVER 70.5 Rec. Yards (-110) at bet365
The Chargers’ rookie wide receiver has been setting the league ablaze in recent weeks, and I expect his impressive production to continue in this game.
McConkey has posted 80+ receiving yards in four of his last five games, and he’s Justin Herbert’s top target in the offense. McConkey also ranks top three in yards per route run and average separation score against man coverage, and he faces a Patriots defense that ranks fourth in man coverage rate. Expect another big game from the standout rookie.
Chargers vs Patriots Betting Trends
- Jim Harbaugh is 26-7 ATS as a favorite of 6 or fewer points
- The Chargers are 10-5 ATS in the first half, while the Patriots are 5-10
- Ladd McConkey has 80+ receiving yards in four of his last five games
