Week 15 of the NFL season features a battle between the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) and Denver Broncos (8-5), which has significant playoff implications in the AFC. In Sean Payton’s second season in Denver, the Broncos have ridden a surging defense and impressive campaign from rookie quarterback Bo Nix to strong positioning for a playoff spot. A win this week would all but guarantee a postseason berth. Can the Colts play spoiler as they look to keep their season alive? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Colts vs Broncos Odds Week 15
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos, December 15th, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Indianapolis Colts | +4(-110) | +165 | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Denver Broncos | -4 (-110) | -200 | U 44.5 (-110) |
Colts vs Broncos Week 15 Picks
Colts +4 (-110)
This AFC matchup holds significant playoff implications. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Colts will have a 66% chance to make the postseason with a win and an 11% chance with a loss. Meanwhile, the Broncos will have an 89% chance to make the postseason with a win and a 42% chance with a loss. Bo Nix deserves a ton of credit for his week-over-week improvement in this offense - he ranks 15th in adjusted EPA/play since Week 5. That’s all the more impressive considering Denver’s underwhelming receiving room and sometimes nonexistent run game - the Broncos rank just 26th in rushing DVOA.
However, the Colts are poised to contain Nix and this offense, with DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore healthy after missing time earlier this season. Indianapolis plays steady zone coverage with a high rate of Cover 3, and it won’t allow big plays through the air. Standout cornerback Samuel Wommack will also be a strong match for Courtland Sutton.
Anthony Richardson has continued to improve for the Colts, ranking eighth in PFF’s passing grades and fourth in big-time throw rate since returning as the starter in Week 10. This matchup presents significant challenges against Denver’s elite defense that ranks fifth in DVOA, but the Broncos could be without cornerback Riley Moss once again. His absence led to the secondary getting torched by Jameis Winston two weeks ago as Levi Wallace got burned repeatedly.
With both teams coming off their bye week, expect strong game plans from both coaching staffs in this critical matchup. I’m siding with the road underdog with the far superior run game in what could be a low-scoring game where points come at a premium.
Colts vs Broncos Week 15 Props
Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards Over
Colts vs Broncos props aren't available yet, but I'm all over Richardson's rushing yards. We’ve seen a renewed focus on Anthony Richardson’s rushing upside in the Indianapolis Colts offense, and that should continue off their bye week. Since returning to the starting lineup in Week 11, Richardson has averaged 8.6 designed rushing attempts per game, a significant increase from 5.6 per game earlier this year. The Broncos rank fifth in man coverage rate and fourth in blitz rate, both of which tend to correlate with quarterback rushing. Expect Richardson’s legs to be a significant factor this week.
Colts vs Broncos Week 15 Betting Trends
● The Broncos are 4-2 SU and ATS at home this season
● Courtland Sutton has logged 70+ receiving yards in six straight games
● The Colts have scored 20+ points in three of Anthony Richardson’s last four starts
