We've got one hell of an NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football, with the Eagles sitting as slight favorites at home against the Commanders.
Philadelphia is a -3.5 favorite (-110 at Caesars) against an up-and-coming Washington squad, with plenty to play for in a tight division. The Eagles currently own a half-game lead over the Commanders in the NFC East, with Philly sitting at 7-2 and Washington at 7-3. The winner of this game will move into the driver's seat for the division.
Both of these team currently rank top-10 in points per game, so I'm looking at the OVER 49.0 in this matchup plus a prop for AJ Brown.
I'll break down complete Commanders vs Eagles Week 11 odds and picks below:
Commanders vs Eagles Odds Week 11
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, Nov. 14, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | +3.5 (-110) | +148 | O 49.0 (-105) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 (-110) | -175 | U 49.0 (-110) |
As of November 11th at Caesars Sportsbook
The early lines on this game differ from book to book. If you're going to bet on the Eagles or the UNDER, you can get better odds at FanDuel. But, if you're leaning to Washington or the OVER, Caesars Sportsbook has more advantageous lines for you. As always, shop around at the time of your wager.
Commanders vs Eagles Picks Week 11
OVER 49.0 Points (-110)
I hate to be a sucker for trends, but every single one points to the OVER in this matchup.
On the season, the Eagles are seventh in points per game and the Commanders are 11th. Combined, these teams have put up 57 points per game of offense over the last three weeks, too. The last three Commanders vs Eagles NFC East battles have all gone over 50 points, too, averaging 62.3 total points per game.
When you dive in a little deeper, the advanced metrics also agree this game is shaping up for an OVER. Both Washington and Philly currently rank top-five in the NFL in expected points added per play on offense. They're both outside the top-10 on defense, too.
As pointed out by Outlier's NFL Insights, the OVER has also hit in seven of the Eagles' last nine home games. So, with this game in Philly I love this bet.
Commanders vs Eagles Prop Pick
AJ Brown Anytime TD (+115)
In six healthy games this year, AJ Brown has three touchdowns — scoring in half his contests. So, this +115 line already gives us some value if you accept that 50% hit rate.
But, I think this specific matchup against the Commanders is a better bet than usual. Things may be a bit different with Marshon Lattimore in the fold, but I still think Washington's secondary is one we can take advantage of for these WR Anytime TD bets. The Commanders have allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing receivers. Lattimore also remains questionable for this Week 11 matchup, so it's not even a guarantee he impacts this game.
In four career games against Washington, Brown has five touchdowns.
Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay
- Eagles ML
- Jalen Hurts anytime TD
- OVER 48.5
I'm hopping on a Bet365's safety net bet promotion for this game in which you place an eligible same-game parlay with a $10 wager and if it loses, you'll be reward $10 in bonus bets.
I think I clearly laid out why I'm digging the OVER for this NFC East battle so I don't need to beat a dead horse any further.
Jalen Hurts has failed to score a rushing TD in just three of the Eagles' nine games this season, and has found the end zone in four straight games, eight times over that span! Hurts also has five majors in seven games against Washington, let's make it six -- tush push or brotherly shove may be required.
Lastly, since Philly has gotten healthy a few weeks ago, they've been on an absolute tear on both sides of the ball. The Eagles head into this game on a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS run, outscoring their opposition by an average of 16.4 points, just need to win by one at home tonight.
Commanders vs Eagles Video Preview
If you're looking for a more extensive breakdown of this matchup, check out our TNF preview on The Huddle live at 11:00 am ET:
Commanders vs Eagles Betting Trends
- The OVER has hit in seven of the Eagles' last nine home games
- The Eagles are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16
- The Eagles are 8-2 in their last 11 home games
- Jalen Hurts has a rushing touchdown in his last four games (he's +105 to have a rushing TD this week at Bet365)
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights:
