We've got two of the NFL's best offenses battling it out in the Division Round this weekend with the Commanders facing off against the Lions in Detroit.
Below, I've got three player props for Commanders vs Lions, featuring two Jared Goff passing picks and a fade of Washington TE Zach Ertz for the playoff contest.
Prop #1: Jared Goff UNDER 33.5 Passing Attempts (-114) at Sportsbook
The Lions' unreal offense relies more on the running game than Jared Goff airing it out. The Detroit QB went UNDER 33.5 passing attempts in 11 of 17 games this year, including the final two contests of the season. Goff has also gone UNDER 33.5 passing attempts in three of his last five playoff starts.
I think a lot of people look at the Commanders' suspect secondary and high pace and think that would result in a lot of opposing passing attempts, but that really wasn't the case this year. Washington allowed the second-fewest pass attempts per game this season (28.6 per contest). Last week, Baker Mayfield attempted just 18 throws.
With David Montgomery expected to be back and healthy, I think the running game will dominate Detroit's game plan in this playoff contest.
Prop #2: Jared Goff UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-155) Sportsbook
As I pointed out in my Commanders vs Lions game picks, I'm taking the UNDER on Goff's picks this weekend. The Detroit passer threw interceptions in just three of his final 14 games this year. In nine career postseason contests, he has just two picks.
In the Divisional Round, Goff faces a Commanders defense that had the fourth-fewest interceptions in the NFL.
The only QBs that the Commanders have picked off in the last eight weeks have been unproven passers (Kenny Picket, Spencer Rattler, and Michael Penix). Goff is far better than those rookies and backups, and should be able to take care of the ball this weekend.
prop #3: Zach Ertz UNDER 31.5 Rec Yards (-114) at Sportsbook
At times this season, Zach Ertz has been Jayden Daniels' favorite target. But lately, that hasn't been the case. In the last five games, Ertz has gone over 25 yards just twice. In last week's Wild-Card game, the tight end had just two catches for 23 yards.
This week, Ertz faces a Lions defense that covered his position as well as anyone. Detroit allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to tight ends this year and the third-fewest rec yards (665).
The Eagles are another top-five tight end defense that Ertz faced this year, and they held him to just one catch and 12 yards in Week 16.
