The Miami Dolphins are still clinging onto hope of a playoff spot.
If they want to stay alive in the postseason race, the Dolphins need a win this week. But, Miami sits as a 2.5-point underdog at Houston this week, with the Texans favored at -156 on the moneyline.
But, I think the underdog Fins have a shot:
Dolphins vs Texans Odds Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans, Dec. 15, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +2.5 (-105) | +132 | O 47.5 (-108) |
| Texans | -2.5 (-120) | -156 | U 47.5 (-112) |
As of December 10th at FanDuel
Dolphins vs Texans Picks Week 15
Dolphins ML (+132)
I don't think the Dolphins are a great team, but I certainly think they can hang with the Texans. Miami is 4-1 in the last five games, though three of those wins have come over the Jets, Patriots, and Raiders. The Texans, on the other hand, are just 2-3 in their last five, with embarrassing losses to the Titans and Jets (and a nail-biting win over the Jaguars).
The Texans are still going to win the AFC South, but they've been a huge flop this year. Houston ranks about league average in expected wins, point differential, and expected points added per play — near mediocre teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Bears.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, have recovered after early-season struggles. Since Tua returned from injury in late-October, Miami is 4-3 and averages 27.7 points per game of offense. The Texans have scored more than 28 points just three times all year. If Miami's offense stays hot this weekend, I don't think Houston can keep up.
Dolphins vs Texans Player Props
Tyreek Hill OVER 73.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Since Tua Tagovailoa came back as Miami's QB, Tyreek Hill has re-found his form. The Dolphins receiver is averaging 68 yards per game in the last seven weeks, breaking 80 yards three times. In the last two weeks, he's been even better, rattling off 200 receiving yards on 16 receptions, adding two touchdowns.
Now, Hill faces a Texans defense that's been particularly bad against receivers. Houston has allowed the sixth-most WR yards this season and 19 TDs in 13 games. I also like Hill as a Anytime TD bet this week, though the odds aren't yet out for that market.
Dolphins vs Texans Betting Trends
- The Dolphins are 0-8 in their last eight games against top-10 defenses
- The Dolphins are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16
- The UNDER has hit in 10 of Houston's last 15 home games
All NFL betting trends from Outlier Trends:
