The Cincinnati Bengals return from their bye week to host the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point favorites at FanDuel and the total settling in at 47.5 points. Bengals matchups have gone OVER the closing total in four straight games as Joe Burrow has been on a tear, producing one of his finest statistical seasons. The Steelers hope to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Browns last week, while the Bengals have no margin for error left as they attempt to make a late playoff push.
With Burrow taking on a familiar foe, can Cincinnati emerge with a win to keep its playoff hopes alive? Or will Pittsburgh win another game in the underdog role? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds Week 13
Steelers vs Bengals, Dec. 1, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2.5 (-102) | +132 | O47.5 (-115) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -2.5 (-120) | -156 | U47.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Nov. 27 at FenDuel
Steelers vs. Bengals Picks - Week 13
Bengals -2.5 (-120) at FanDuel
It’s incredibly rare to see a 4-7 team favored over an 8-3 team without the influence of significant injury news, but that’s precisely what we have here. However, these teams are far closer in terms of on-field product than their records would indicate - the Steelers rank 14th in DVOA, while the Bengals rank 16th.
Joe Burrow has had a phenomenal season for Cincinnati, with 27 touchdowns to four interceptions. He might be the favorite for the MVP trophy if the Bengals’ one-score losses flipped to wins. However, a 1-6 record in one-score games has underscored a highly disappointing season for this team.
Of course, the Steelers defense is very familiar with Burrow, and Pittsburgh will bank on its eighth-ranked pass defense by DVOA holding up. Pittsburgh relies on an elite pressure unit, ranking fifth in pass-rush win rate, led by T.J. Watt. The matchup between Steelers corners Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson and Bengals wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could go a long way toward determining this matchup.
The Steelers’ offense, meanwhile, has left a lot to be desired for much of this season. Since Russell Wilson took over as the starter in Week 7, the Steelers rank just 27th in passing success rate and 30th in overall offensive success rate. Pittsburgh wants to establish the run, ranking 30th in early down pass play rate, but Cincinnati’s run defense has been much improved - allowing just 1.24 yards before contact per attempt since Week 7, the fourth-lowest in the league.
Joe Burrow is a pristine 18-7-1 ATS (72%) off a loss in his career, and I’m betting on the luck shifting this week. Look for the Bengals to pull off the win at home with value on the spread at Bengals -2.5 with -120 odds or better.
Will Orlando Brown Play in This Game?
The biggest key to this game might be the Bengals’ offensive line’s ability to keep Joe Burrow upright in the pocket against this nasty Steelers pass rush. Along with superstars T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, the Steelers should get Alex Highsmith back on the field this week, while Nick Herbig has been a breakout talent.
Bengals' Orlando Brown has been out since Week 8, but the hope is that he’ll be able to return off the bye week. If not, consider a bet on Highsmith to record a sack on Sunday.
Steelers vs Bengals Betting Trends
- The Bengals are 1-6 in one-possession games this season
- Joe Burrow is 18-7-1 ATS (72%) off a loss in his career
- Zac Taylor is 10-21 against the AFC North
