Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds

Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds & Picks: Barkley vs Mahomes

We've got our big game matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs, so it's time to look into 2025 Super Bowl 59 MVP odds.

Patrick Mahomes has won back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs with the Chiefs and is once again the favorite for Super Bowl 59. Mahomes leads the odds, sitting at +110 at Sportsbook. But, I see plenty of other value down the Super Bowl MVP odds board, including Saquon Barkley (+280) and Jalen Carter (+7500):

Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds

Odds to Win Super Bowl 59 MVP
PlayerLive Odds
Patrick Mahomes+110
Saquon Barkley+280
Jalen Hurts+370
Travis Kelce+1800
Xavier Worthy+3000
AJ Brown+3200
DeVonta Smith+5000
Kareem Hunt+6000
Chris Jones+6000
Marquise Brown+6500
Jalen Carter+7500
Zack Baun+9000
Dallas Goedert+10000

Odds as of Jan. 30th, 2025 from Sportsbook

Super Bowl 59 MVP Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+110)

How do you bet against this guy?

All Patrick Mahomes has done during his NFL career is show up in the biggest moments. He's won three Super Bowls and three Super Bowl MVPs in just eight seasons. In the regular season, he averages 288.9 passing yards per game and touchdowns on 4.5% of his passes. In the playoffs, when the games get harder, Mahomes is still at 277.9 yards per game and an improved 6.0% touchdown rate.

I think a lot of people are going to look past Mahomes in this game, because he wasn't amazing during this regular season and hasn't really been incredible in the playoffs, yet. But, despite averaging 211 yards per game and just two passing touchdowns in his playoff contests so far this year, Mahomes has still been the best Kansas City player on the field. The Chiefs go as far as Mahomes takes them, and he (rightfully) gets credit for the wins.

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, it's Mahomes who will be hoisting his fourth Super Bowl MVP trophy.

Super Bowl MVP Value Pick: Saquon Barkley (+280)

We haven't seen a running back win this award since Terrell Davis in 1997, but I think Saquon has what it takes. I snagged him at +1500 in the Divisional Round, but still think there's some value here ahead of the super Bowl.

For starters, Barkley's Eagles do have a shot at this title. It's hard to bet against the Chiefs, but I do think Philly has been the best team in the NFL over the last two months. The Eagles finished the season with the second-best point differential in football and were top-six in both offensive and defensive EPA — the Chiefs didn't rank top-10 in either of those EPA stats.

On an individual level Saquon has been putting up insane stat lines, too. He's probably going to finish third in NFL MVP voting after averaging 142 total yards and almost a touchdown per game. He's had over 115 rushing yards in all three playoff games this season, plus five total touchdowns. If Barkley puts up 120+ yards and a few touchdowns in the Super Bowl (and the Eagles win), it's hard to see anybody else getting MVP.

Super Bowl MVP Deep Sleeper: Jalen Carter (+7500)

Jalen Carter isn't consistently amazing, but he has about as high of a ceiling as any defensive lineman in football. We saw that peak in the Divisional Round against the Rams, when Carter had two sacks, a forced fumble, five tackles, and three quarterback hits. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to have that kind of day in the Super Bowl, but he's got a much higher ceiling than all these other MVP value picks.

The Chiefs' offensive line also has some holes in the middle. Mike Caliendo has been forced to start at left guard lately, and he was one of the worst offensive lineman in football this year (his 48.9 PFF grade ranked 114th/135 guards). If the Eagles can move Carter around to take advantage of that weakness, I could see a multi-sack game for the Philly big man. Add in a forced fumble or another game-breaking play, and I think Carter could become the first defensive lineman to win this award since Super Bowl XX.

Bettors Love Travis Kelce For Super Bowl MVP

While he's not one of my top value options for Super Bowl 59 MVP, early bettors were all over Kelce in this market. Per Sportsbook's wagering data, Kelce has more money on him to win Super Bowl MVP than any other player (22.1% of the handle), ahead of Barkley (17.3%) and Mahomes (12.6%). That makes Kelce the biggest liability for the books, if he were to be successful, and has pushed books like BetMGM to move his line up to +1500.

This huge handle on Kelce is in part due to one unknown bettor placing a $25,000 wager on the Chiefs TE for Super Bowl MVP, to pay out $350,000. Maybe Taylor is backing her boy?

"Early bettors are following the stars. Saquon and Kelce hold the biggest liabilities for their player props and for Super Bowl MVP. These guys staying out of the endzone would be great for the book," a Sportsbook Trading Manager said in a statement.

You can find more info about the Super Bowl 59 MVP betting handle and market trends here.

Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends

There's a reason the top of Super Bowl 59 MVP odds is filled with quarterbacks. They dominate the history of this award, but betting trends show the passers don't always win MVP: 

  • Quarterbacks have won the award in six of the last eight Super Bowls & four of the last five
  • New England Patriots receiver Julian Edelman is the largest longshot to win Super Bowl MVP over the last 20 seasons, at +2200 odds
  • Eight wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP, with two of those coming in the last six years
  • Five of the last eight Super Bowl MVP's have had odds of +187 or lower heading into the final
  • Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, and Dexter Jackson are the only defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP over the last 25 years
  • Quarterbacks have won 33 Super Bowl MVPs
  • Seven running backs have been awarded Super Bowl MVP
  • Four linebackers have won the award
  • Only two safeties and defensive ends have taken home the Super Bowl MVP trophy

Super Bowl MVP Betting History

Past Super Bowl MVP Winners
GamePlayerPositionOdds
LVIIIPatrick MahomesQuarterback+135
LVIIPatrick MahomesQuarterback+135
LVICooper KuppWide Receiver+500
LVTom BradyQuarterback+175
LIVPatrick MahomesQuarterback+115
LIIIJulian EdelmanWide Receiver+2000
LIINick FolesQuarterback+325
LITom BradyQuarterback+150
LVon MillerLinebacker+2200
XLIXTom BradyQuarterback+160
XLVIIIMalcolm SmithLinebacker+2200
XLVIIJoe FlaccoQuarterback+250
XLVIEli ManningQuarterback+210
XLVAaron RodgersQuarterback+175
XLIVDrew BreesQuarterback+180
XLIIISantonio HolmesWide ReceiverN/A
XLIIEli ManningQuarterbackN/A
XLIPeyton ManningQuarterbackN/A
XLHines WardWide ReceiverN/A
XXXIXDeion BranchWide ReceiverN/A
XXXVIIITom BradyQuarterbackN/A
XXXVIIDexter JacksonSafetyN/A
XXXVITom BradyQuarterbackN/A
XXXVRay LewisLinebackerN/A
XXXIVKurt WarnerQuarterbackN/A
XXXIIIJohn ElwayQuarterbackN/A
XXXIITerrell DavisRunning BackN/A
XXXIDesmond HowardKick ReturnerN/A
XXXLarry BrownCornerbackN/A
XXIXSteve YoungQuarterbackN/A
XXVIIIEmmitt SmithRunning BackN/A
XXVIITroy AikmanQuarterbackN/A
XXVIMark RypienQuarterbackN/A
XXVOttis AndersonRunning BackN/A
XXIVJoe MontanaQuarterbackN/A
XXIIIJerry RiceWide ReceiverN/A
XXIIDoug WilliamsQuarterbackN/A
XXIPhil SimmsQuarterbackN/A
XXRichard DentDefensive EndN/A
XIXJoe MontanaQuarterbackN/A
XVIIIMarcus AllenRunning BackN/A
XVIIJohn RigginsRunning BackN/A
XVIJoe MontanaQuarterbackN/A
XVJim PlunkettQuarterbackN/A
XIVTerry BradshawQuarterbackN/A
XIIITerry BradshawQuarterbackN/A
XIIHarvey Martin & Randy WhiteDE/DTN/A
XIFred BiletnikoffWide ReceiverN/A
XLynn SwannWide ReceiverN/A
IXFranco HarrisRunning BackN/A
VIIILarry CsonkaRunning BackN/A
VIIJake ScottSafetyN/A
VIRoger StaubachQuarterbackN/A
VChuck HowleyLinebackerN/A
IVLen DawsonQuarterbackN/A
IIIJoe NamathQuarterbackN/A
IIBart StarrQuarterbackN/A
IBart StarrQuarterbackN/A
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