The NFL is already challenging to handicap, but Week 18 brings a whole new set of variables, with players potentially sitting out in cases where playoff berths have been clenched, and seeding has been locked up.
The Houston Texans (9-7), as 1.5-point underdogs at Sportsbook, find themselves in that position this week as they visit the Tennessee Titans (3-13) with the AFC South already wrapped up. Pay attention to the reports, as we’ll know more about whether or not the Texans are resting starters throughout the week. Let’s dive into the matchup and break it down.
Texans vs Titans Odds Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans, January 5, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +1.5 (-120) | -104 | O38.5 (-105) |
| Tennessee Titans | -1.5 (-102) | -116 | U38.5 (-112) |
Odds as of Dec. 31 at FanDuel
Texans vs Titans Picks Week 18
UNDER 38.5 Points (-112) at Sportsbook
Early in the week, the indication is that the Texans’ starters will be playing on Sunday. After last week’s embarrassing blowout loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day, head coach DeMeco Ryans has expressed his team’s need to get that bad taste out of its mouth and play better overall. “Everybody will be out there playing,” Ryans said. “For us right now, it’s a feel for where our team is. And right now, our team needs to be playing better.”
Specifically, the Texans need to be playing better on offense. The expectations were high in Houston, with C.J. Stroud poised for a Year Two superstar leap with a loaded skill position group. However, the Texans’ offense ranks 25th in DVOA, 22nd in EPA/play, and 31st in success rate. The biggest culprit has been the offensive line, as Houston ranks 26th in adjusted line yards, while Stroud has been pressured at the highest rate of all qualified QBs.
Houston’s defense, however, has been excellent. The Texans rank second in defensive DVOA, sixth in EPA/play, and third in success rate. In particular, the pass-rushing tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter has been superb as the Texans rank first in pass-rush win rate. They should wreck house this week against a Titans offensive line that ranks 27th in pass-block win rate.
The Titans are planning to give Will Levis some run in this regular-season finale, but whether it’s him or Mason Rudolph under center, it’s tough to project much offensive consistency. Running a two-quarterback system could also present challenges for an offense that has rarely been in rhythm all year.
This divisional matchup doesn’t appear to be a shootout on the surface, and the UNDER looks like the best play on the board. The Texans could also opt to bench Stroud and the rest of the starters after a few series in this game, with the No. 4 seed already locked in. Regardless, don’t expect a ton of scoring in this Week 18 game.
Texans vs Titans Prop Pick Week 18
Joe Mixon UNDER Rushing Yards (Odds Not Available Yet)
The Texans have struggled to gain traction in the run game in recent weeks, and they rank just 30th in run-block win rate on the season. That has been catastrophic for Joe Mixon’s upside, as he’s finished with less than 30 rushing yards in three of his last five games, including a disgusting 22-yard outing on 14 carries against Tennessee a few weeks ago. The Titans’ defense ranks third in adjusted line yards, so it could be tough sledding again for Mixon.
Texans vs Titans Betting Trends
- The Texans have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- The Titans are 2-14 ATS, the worst of any team in the Super Bowl era
- The Texans have gone 3-1 to the under in their last four games
