NFL Week 16 kicks off tonight tonight with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos vs Chargers.
The Chargers opened as three-point favorites at BetMGM, but the line has moved a touched in Denver's direction, with LA a -2.5 fav at this point. The line is a well set one, as bettors and the handle are split 50/50 on these two sides, per BetMGM's data.
For anytime touchdown scorers, the betting handles are heavy on Broncos WR1 Courtland Sutton, who has six scores on the season, and Los Angeles' Ladd McConkey.
Below, I'll highlight where the betting action is for the Week 16 Thursday Night Football game and what we can learn from the Broncos vs Chargers handle:
Chargers vs Broncos Betting Handle
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers, Dec. 19, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +2.5 | 51% | 50% | O41.5 | 63% | 72% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -2.5 | 49% | 50% | U41.5 | 37% | 28% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
Is A Whale On The UNDER?
While the public and sharps are pretty split on the spread tonight, the one spot I think we can take note of the action for this game is on the point total. Despite 63% of all bets and 72% of the money coming in on the OVER for Broncos vs Chargers, we've actually seen the line drop from 42.5 to 41.5 since the market opened. This kind of reverse line movement is rare, but it could show us that a trusted bettor or two put a big wager on the UNDER, prompting books to move this number down.
Public On The Moneyline
Another trend I noticed from this BetMGM data is how heavy the public is on the Denver moneyline tonight, with 76% of all bets coming on on the Broncos. Call me a square if you want, but I also took Bo Nix and the Broncos at +125, with the current state of LA's offense giving me reason to fade.
However, the sharp money is actually on the Chargers ML for this one (making me a bit nervous. 56% of the handle is on LA despite 75% of all bets on Denver ML.
If you're more interested in where the prop action is for this one, BetMGM has also provided us with the most bet on Broncos vs Chargers player props and touchdown picks:
Five Most Bet Chargers vs Broncos Player Props
- Bo Nix UNDER 20.5 rushing yards (+105)
- Kimani Vidal OVER 1.5 receptions (-175)
- Gus Edwards OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-135)
- Kimani Vidal OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Gus Edwards OVER 10.5 rushing attempts (+105)
Sorry public, I actually don't love these player props much, especially the Chargers rushing wagers. The Broncos have one of the best run defenses in football this year, allowing the sixth-fewest RB rushing yards. Plus, Edwards and Vidal haven't been a huge factor in recent weeks, despite JK Dobbins' injury. Last week, the pair of LA RBs COMBINED for just 11 carries and 32 yards.
Five most Bet Chargers vs Broncos Players for Anytime TD
- Courtland Sutton (+180)
- Javonte Williams (+175)
- DEN D/ST (+650)
- Ladd McConkey (+155)
- Gus Edwards (+140)
Five Most Bet Chargers vs Broncos Players For First TD
- Courtland Sutton (+800)
- Ladd McConkey (+750)
- Javonte Williams (+850)
- Gus Edwards (+600)
- Quentin Johnston (+1200)
I love the public going after Sutton touchdown bets today. He's clearly Denver's top receiver, he's got six touchdowns on the season and has snagged at least six receptions in six of his last seven starts.
Plus Sutton faces a Chargers defense that's allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to WRs this year (16 in 14 games).
