I'm back with two Anytime Touchdown bets for this weekend's NFL Week 14 slate.
I've got two primetime touchdown picks for this week, targeting Will Dissly (+270) on Sunday Night Football and Chase Brown (-138) on Monday Night Football:
Week 14 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
| Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|
| 8-17 | -2.78 |
Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown (-138)
I really wanted to go Saquon Barkley vs Carolina with this first pick, but his -270 TD odds just provide no value at all. So, instead of fading the Panthers' rushing defense, I'll take advantage of another bad run D: the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to opposing RBs this season (15 in 12 games). A lot of that damage has come in the short-passing game, too, with Dallas letting up 450 receiving yards to opposing RBs this year.
That's perfect for Chase Brown, who's had at least 30 receiving yards in each of the last four weeks, on top of good ground production. Brown has eight touchdowns in 12 games this year, all of which have come in the last nine weeks. He can score on the ground or in the air this week, taking advantage of that bad Dallas run D.
Will Dissly Anytime Touchdown (+270)
If the Kansas City Chiefs have a weakness, it's the struggle to defend tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed the most yardage to the position this year (942 yards in 12 games) and four touchdowns to TEs.
Another key factor here is Dissly becoming a big part of the Chargers' offense. He didn't catch a single pass last week (in part because of injury), but in the three weeks before he had at least 30 yards and four receptions.
Dissly also has six targets in the red zone this year, but has caught only three — contributing to his low TD total of one on the year. That's as many red zone targets as Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, and Kyle Pitts. So, I think he's due for some positve regression in the TD category.
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Week 14 First Touchdown Scorer Bets
If you want to risk it even a little further, here are the odds for Brown and Dissly's first touchdown scorer bets this week at BetMGM, as well as a few other 1st TD wagers I like this week:
- Chase Brown (CIN) 1st TD: +400
- Will Dissly (LAC) 1st TD: +1600
- Saquon Barkley (PHI) 1st TD: +500
- Cade Otton (TB) 1st TD: +950
Anytime TD scorer bets are a hot bet in 2024, with the market up 76% this season, per BetMGM's statistics, and a lot more users are looking for the increased payout of a 1st TD scorer bet, too. These bets are a bit harder to nail, but come with significantly increased odds compared to an anytime wager.
A large reason for this increase in 1st TD bets is BetMGM's 'Second Chance Promotion,' which offers bettors the chance to win back their stake if a first touchdown scorer doesn't open the game with a TD, but ends up being the second scorer. So if you're going to place one of these first touchdown bets this week, or at any point this season, be sure to do so over at BetMGM.
How To Understand NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for our recommended bets, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Cooper Kupp – Rams +120
Tee Higgins – Bengals +150
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is a player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Cooper Kupp. Based on Kupp’s implied odds from sportsbooks, he has a 45.45 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Tee Higgins will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $66.67. If you make that bet and Higgins scores, your $66.67 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Kupp or Higgins. In this case, you decide to bet on the Bengals’ Joe Burrow at +500.
If you bet $100 on Burrow and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $600 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook will give you $500 in profit for your winning bet. If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
