Roughly 24 hours out from the beginning of UFC 311, there was a change atop the card as lightweight challenger Arman Tsarukyan pulled out from the fight with a bank injury and Renato Moicano has stepped up to fight Islam Makhachev.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
— danawhite (@danawhite) January 17, 2025
Makhachev will now be facing Moicano for the lightweight title. #UFC311 is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus PPV! pic.twitter.com/2JZevvpQP2
Renato "Money" Moicano is back in the cage at UFC 311, challenging Beneil Dariush in a main-card lightweight clash.
Currently, Moicano is a -184 favorite at FanDuel, with the Dariush at +142. Each fighter is a veteran, though Moicano is on a four-fight win streak, hence why he's a favorite in the Moicano vs Dariush odds.
Moicano vs Dariush Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | -184 |
| Beneil Dariush | +142 |
Odds as of Jan. 15
How To Bet Moicano
I love betting Moicano as the underdog. I backed him against Drew Dober and Benoit Saint-Denis simply because his long odds drew me in. Now he's the favorite, though his modest price makes him bettable SU.
Moicano's BJJ is excellent. He's a menace on the mat, capable of blistering opponents from top control. He smashed BSD so badly that the poor Frenchman couldn't make it to Round 3. While Moicano is a competent striker, he'll want this fight on the ground as quickly as possible. It's likely the Brazilian scores a takedown, too (his 44% success rate is very good). Dariush is well-versed in combatting strong grapplers (Mateusz Gamrot comes to mind), so Moicano will have his work cut out for him.
If I was on Moicano, I'd lay him straight up. It's too hard to tell if he smashes G&P or uses control for a decision. He'll gun for the finish but Dariush is a dude on the mat. He also defends takedowns at an 80% clip, which is better than normal.
How to Bet Dariush
While Benny's 80% takedown defense is a good starting point, it'll be his composure and striking that wins this bout. He must fight tight and be patient. BSD ran into trouble in Paris by overexerting himself and stumbling into devastating positions on the ground. Dariush's route to victory involves calm takedown defense and counter-punching. It can't be anything crazy, as Moicano will capitalize on vulnerable areas.
It's reasonable to doubt Dariush after two KO losses, but he didn't get much of a change in either of those fights (both early first-round KOs). Moicano won't come out punching, so that fear won't pop up again.
I like Dariush ML (+142) and Dariush by decision (+430) for a value pick.
UFC 311: Moicano vs Dariush Betting Pick
As I alluded to earlier, I'll stick with my strategy of betting Moicano...only as an underdog! So I'm on Dariush for UFC 311. I'll take his odds straight up, as I believe he has the composure and just enough grappling talent to work his gameplan vs Moicano.
Beyond that, I'll play the OVER 2.5 rounds at -112.
