Alabama vs Duke Preview & Picks: Defensive Grit Meets Three-Point Precision in Elite Eight

The top two seeds in the NCAA tournament’s East Regional clash on Saturday for the right to go to the Final Four. No. 1 seed Duke held off Arizona in the Sweet 16 and is now a 6.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight over No. 2 seed Alabama, which ran away from upstart BYU.

After blowing out its first two opponents in the tournament, Duke failed to cover against the Wildcats, who fell 100-93 as a 9-point underdog. Alabama meanwhile struggled in its tournament opener, edging 21-point underdog Robert Morris by nine, but recovered to win easily in the next two rounds.

Alabama vs duke Odds

Matchup Page: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Duke Blue Devils, Mar. 29, 8:49 pm ET

Odds as of March 29, 2025 at Sportsbook

alabama vs duke preview & picks

The Sweet 16 contest against Arizona marked the first time Duke had faced a competitive game with star freshman Cooper Flagg in the lineup since the loss to Clemson way back on Feb. 8. But it still took a huge effort for Arizona to cover, given that it trailed by as many as 19 in the second half and hit a pair of late 3-pointers to make the final score look more competitive than it really was.

Alabama meanwhile hit a tournament-record 25 3-pointers and shot 53 percent from the field in its 113-88 trouncing of 4.5-point underdog BYU. Now we see if the Crimson Tide can be as efficient from distance against the Blue Devils, who rank sixth nationally in scoring defense and 24th nationally in 3-point percentage defense—categories in which the Cougars stood 155th and 273rd, respectively. 

BYU also didn’t have a player like Flagg, who scored 30 against Arizona and had the ball in his hands during every key possession down the stretch. And then there are Alabama’s eight losses this season to Quad 1 opponents in the NCAA’s NET rankings (Duke has three), which indicate an uneven season-long track record against foes at the top of the sport.

Alabama vs Duke Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110)

The Crimson Tide is the highest-scoring team in college basketball, averaging 90.8 points per game. Not surprisingly, they’ve gone OVER the total in nine of their last 13, including two of three games in this NCAA tournament. Duke has gone OVER in all three, as well as 10 of its last 13, and in addition to its outstanding defense has the 12th-best scoring offense in the nation at 83.2 points per game.

Alabama vs Duke Pick: OVER 174.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Friday, March 28 at 10:30 am ET

alabama vs duke Prop Bet: Cooper Flagg 25+ Points (-102)

Put the ball in Flagg’s hands, and watch him make plays. That was essentially what Duke did in the Sweet 16 against Arizona, and the result was a 30-point night for the star freshman. It was the biggest scoring effort for Flagg since he returned from his ankle sprain suffered in the ACC tournament, and there’s no reason to believe Duke will deviate from that plan in the Elite Eight.

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