2 vs 15 Seed History: How Many 15 Seeds Beat A 2 Seed?

Now that Selection Sunday is over, we have our four matchups between the 2 vs 15 seeds. The No. 2 seeds are: Michigan St, St. John's Tennessee and Alabama. They'll be looking to move past the No. 15 seeds which are: Bryant, Omaha, Wofford and Robert Morris.

Throughout college basketball history, the No. 15 seed pulling off an upset has only happened 11 times in recorded history. But, what if I told you over half of the upsets have happened in the last 12 seasons? 

How many times has the no. 2 seed been upset by the no. 15 seed?

The No. 2 seeds hold a commanding 11-145 all-time record against No. 15 seeds. Before 2012, the No. 2 upset had only been upset four times, occurring over the decade of 1991 to 2001. But those upsets have less rarity in modern-day March Madness, with No. 15 seeds coming out on top seven times in the last 12 seasons. 

Most recently, No. 15 Princeton memorably derailed the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats hype train in 2023, throwing brackets across the country into disarray. That year, the Wildcats entered the game as hefty 15-point favourites and were even +1600 to win the National Championship.

Just a year prior in 2022, St. Peter’s stunned John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats as 18.5-point underdogs, 85-79. The Peacocks became everybody’s favorite Cinderella squad, cashing the +1000 moneyline and going all the way to the Elite Eight. 

What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?

Dating back to 1996, The No. 15 seeds are 58-53-1 ATS with 24 of the last 30 spreads being set at 15 points or more. No. 15 seeds hold a slight edge with a 52.23% cover rate. However, our No. 2 seeds are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven matchups.

Odds of 15 seed beating 2 seed

Of the 156 2 vs 15 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 15 seed has a 7.05% chance of defeating the No. 2 seed outright in March Madness.

no. 2 seed vs no. 15 seed History