With Selection Sunday on the horizon, the 2 vs 15 matchups are about to be locked in.
Throughout college basketball history, the No. 15 seed pulling off an upset has only happened 11 times in recorded history. But, what if I told you over half of the upsets have happened in the last 12 seasons?
How many times has the no. 2 seed been upset by the no. 15 seed?
The No. 2 seeds hold a commanding 11-145 all-time record against No. 15 seeds. Before 2012, the No. 2 upset had only been upset four times, occurring over the decade of 1991 to 2001. But those upsets have less rarity in modern-day March Madness, with No. 15 seeds coming out on top seven times in the last 12 seasons.
Most recently, No. 15 Princeton memorably derailed the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats hype train in 2023, throwing brackets across the country into disarray. That year, the Wildcats entered the game as hefty 15-point favourites and were even +1600 to win the National Championship.
Just a year prior in 2022, St. Peter’s stunned John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats as 18.5-point underdogs, 85-79. The Peacocks became everybody’s favorite Cinderella squad, cashing the +1000 moneyline and going all the way to the Elite Eight.
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
Dating back to 1996, The No. 15 seeds are 58-53-1 ATS with 24 of the last 30 spreads being set at 15 points or more. No. 15 seeds hold a slight edge with a 52.23% cover rate. However, our No. 2 seeds are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven matchups.
Odds of 15 seed beating 2 seed
Of the 156 2 vs 15 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 15 seed has a 7.05% chance of defeating the No. 2 seed outright in March Madness.
no. 2 seed vs no. 15 seed History
#2 Seed | Score | #15 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette | 87 | Western Kentucky | 69 | 2024-03-22 | Marquette | 2 | 2 |
Iowa State | 82 | San Diego St. | 65 | 2024-03-21 | Iowa State | 2 | 2 |
Arizona | 85 | Long Beach St. | 65 | 2024-03-21 | PUSH | N/A | N/A |
Tennessee | 83 | Saint Peter's | 49 | 2024-03-21 | Tennessee | 2 | 2 |
Arizona | 55 | Princeton | 59 | 2023-03-16 | Princeton | 15 | 15 |
Texas | 81 | Colgate | 61 | 2023-03-17 | Texas | 2 | 2 |
UCLA | 86 | UNC Asheville | 53 | 2023-03-17 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Marquette | 78 | Vermont | 61 | 2023-03-17 | Marquette | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 79 | St. Peter’s | 85 | 2022-03-17 | St. Peter’s | 15 | 15 |
Duke | 78 | Cal St. Fullerton | 61 | 2022-03-18 | Cal St. Fullerton | 2 | 15 |
Auburn | 80 | Jacksonville State | 61 | 2022-03-18 | Auburn | 2 | 2 |
Villanova | 80 | Delaware | 60 | 2022-03-18 | Villanova | 2 | 2 |
Houston | 87 | Cleveland State | 56 | 2021-03-19 | Houston | 2 | 2 |
Ohio State | 72 | Oral Roberts | 75 | 2021-03-19 | Oral Roberts | 15 | 15 |
Alabama | 68 | Iona | 55 | 2021-03-20 | Iona | 2 | 15 |
Iowa | 86 | Grand Canyon | 74 | 2021-03-20 | Grand Canyon | 2 | 15 |
Kentucky | 79 | Abilene Christian | 44 | 2019-03-21 | Kentucky | 2 | 2 |
Michigan | 74 | Montana | 55 | 2019-03-21 | Michigan | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 77 | Colgate | 70 | 2019-03-22 | Colgate | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 76 | Bradley | 65 | 2019-03-21 | Bradley | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 89 | Iona | 67 | 2018-03-15 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 84 | Lipscomb | 66 | 2018-03-16 | Lipscomb | 2 | 15 |
Purdue | 74 | Cal St. Fullerton | 48 | 2018-03-16 | Purdue | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 68 | Georgia State | 53 | 2018-03-16 | Cincinnati | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 87 | Troy | 65 | 2017-03-17 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
Louisville | 78 | Jacksonville State | 63 | 2017-03-17 | Jacksonville State | 2 | 15 |
Arizona | 100 | North Dakota | 82 | 2017-03-16 | PUSH | 2 | PUSH |
Kentucky | 79 | Northern Kentucky | 70 | 2017-03-17 | Northern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 81 | Middle Tennessee | 90 | 2016-03-18 | Middle Tennessee | 15 | 15 |
Oklahoma | 82 | CSU Bakersfield | 68 | 2016-03-18 | CSU Bakersfield | 2 | 15 |
Xavier | 71 | Weber State | 53 | 2016-03-18 | Xavier | 2 | 2 |
Villanova | 86 | UNC Asheville | 56 | 2016-03-18 | Villanova | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 75 | New Mexico State | 56 | 2015-03-20 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Arizona | 93 | Texas Southern | 72 | 2015-03-19 | Texas Southern | 2 | 15 |
Gonzaga | 86 | North Dakota State | 76 | 2015-03-20 | North Dakota State | 2 | 15 |
Virginia | 79 | Belmont | 67 | 2015-03-20 | Belmont | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 80 | Eastern Kentucky | 69 | 2014-03-21 | Eastern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Villanova | 73 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 53 | 2014-03-20 | Villanova | 2 | 2 |
Michigan | 57 | Wofford | 40 | 2014-03-20 | Michigan | 2 | 2 |
Wisconsin | 75 | American | 35 | 2014-03-20 | Wisconsin | 2 | 2 |
Ohio State | 95 | Iona | 70 | 2013-03-22 | Ohio State | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 68 | Florida Gulf Coast | 78 | 2013-03-22 | Florida Gulf Coast | 15 | 15 |
Miami | 78 | Pacific | 49 | 2013-03-22 | Miami | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 73 | Albany | 61 | 2013-03-22 | Albany | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 65 | Detroit | 50 | 2012-03-16 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 70 | Lehigh | 75 | 2012-03-16 | Lehigh | 15 | 15 |
Missouri | 84 | Norfolk State | 86 | 2012-03-16 | Norfolk State | 15 | 15 |
Ohio State | 78 | Loyola | 59 | 2012-03-15 | Ohio State | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 102 | Long Island | 87 | 2011-03-18 | Long Island | 2 | 15 |
Notre Dame | 69 | Akron | 56 | 2011-03-18 | Akron | 2 | 15 |
Florida | 79 | Santa Barbara | 51 | 2011-03-17 | Florida | 2 | 2 |
San Diego State | 68 | Northern Colorado | 50 | 2011-03-17 | San Diego State | 2 | 2 |
Ohio State | 68 | Santa Barbara | 51 | 2010-03-19 | Santa Barbara | 2 | 15 |
West Virginia | 77 | Morgan State | 50 | 2010-03-19 | West Virginia | 2 | 2 |
Kansas State | 82 | North Texas | 62 | 2010-03-18 | Kansas State | 2 | 2 |
Villanova | 73 | Robert Morris | 70 | 2010-03-18 | Robert Morris | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 77 | Robert Morris | 62 | 2009-03-20 | Michigan State | 2 | 2 |
Oklahoma | 82 | Morgan State | 54 | 2009-03-19 | Oklahoma | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 86 | Binghamton | 62 | 2009-03-19 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
Memphis | 81 | CS Northridge | 70 | 2009-03-19 | CS Northridge | 2 | 15 |
Texas | 74 | Austin Peay | 54 | 2008-03-21 | Texas | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 66 | UMBC | 47 | 2008-03-21 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 72 | American | 57 | 2008-03-21 | American | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 71 | Belmont | 70 | 2008-03-20 | Belmont | 2 | 15 |
Wisconsin | 76 | Texas A&M-CC | 63 | 2007-03-16 | Wisconsin | 2 | 2 |
Memphis | 73 | North Texas | 58 | 2007-03-16 | North Texas | 2 | 15 |
UCLA | 70 | Weber State | 42 | 2007-03-15 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 80 | Belmont | 55 | 2007-03-15 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Texas | 60 | Pennsylvania | 52 | 2006-03-17 | Pennsylvania | 2 | 15 |
Ohio State | 70 | Davidson | 62 | 2006-03-17 | Davidson | 2 | 15 |
UCLA | 78 | Belmont | 44 | 2006-03-16 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 63 | Winthrop | 61 | 2006-03-16 | Winthrop | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 77 | Central Florida | 71 | 2005-03-18 | Central Florida | 2 | 15 |
Oklahoma State | 63 | Southeastern Louisiana | 50 | 2005-03-18 | Southeastern Louisiana | 2 | 15 |
Wake Forest | 70 | Chattanooga | 54 | 2005-03-17 | Chattanooga | 2 | 15 |
Kentucky | 72 | Eastern Kentucky | 64 | 2005-03-17 | Eastern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Mississippi State | 85 | Monmouth | 52 | 2004-03-19 | Mississippi State | 2 | 2 |
Oklahoma State | 75 | Eastern Washington | 56 | 2004-03-19 | Oklahoma State | 2 | 2 |
Gonzaga | 76 | Valparaiso | 49 | 2004-03-18 | Gonzaga | 2 | 2 |
Connecticut | 70 | Vermont | 53 | 2004-03-18 | Vermont | 2 | 15 |
Pittsburgh | 87 | Wagner | 61 | 2003-03-21 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 2 |
Florida | 85 | Sam Houston State | 55 | 2003-03-21 | Florida | 2 | 2 |
Wake Forest | 76 | East Tennessee State | 73 | 2003-03-21 | East Tennessee State | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 64 | Utah State | 61 | 2003-03-20 | Utah State | 2 | 15 |
Oklahoma | 71 | Illinois-Chicago | 63 | 2002-03-15 | Illinois-Chicago | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 78 | Hampton | 67 | 2002-03-15 | Hampton | 2 | 15 |
Oregon | 81 | Montana | 62 | 2002-03-14 | Montana | 2 | 15 |
Alabama | 86 | Florida Atlantic | 78 | 2002-03-14 | Florida Atlantic | 2 | 15 |
Arizona | 101 | Eastern Illinois | 76 | 2001-03-16 | Arizona | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 70 | Princeton | 48 | 2001-03-16 | North Carolina | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 72 | Holy Cross | 68 | 2001-03-15 | Holy Cross | 2 | 15 |
Iowa State | 57 | Hampton | 58 | 2001-03-15 | Hampton | 15 | 15 |
Temple | 73 | Lafayette | 47 | 2000-03-17 | Temple | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 64 | UNC Wilmington | 47 | 2000-03-17 | UNC Wilmington | 2 | 15 |
St. John’s | 61 | Northern Arizona | 56 | 2000-03-16 | Northern Arizona | 2 | 15 |
Iowa State | 88 | Cent Conn State | 78 | 2000-03-16 | Cent Conn State | 2 | 15 |
Utah | 80 | Arkansas State | 58 | 1999-03-12 | Utah | 2 | 2 |
Miami | 75 | Lafayette | 54 | 1999-03-12 | Miami | 2 | 2 |
Maryland | 82 | Valparaiso | 60 | 1999-03-11 | Maryland | 2 | 2 |
Stanford | 69 | Alcorn State | 57 | 1999-03-11 | Alcorn State | 2 | 15 |
Purdue | 95 | Delaware | 56 | 1998-03-13 | Purdue | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 82 | South Carolina State | 67 | 1998-03-13 | South Carolina State | 2 | 15 |
Cincinnati | 65 | Northern Arizona | 62 | 1998-03-12 | Northern Arizona | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 93 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 85 | 1998-03-12 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 71 | Murray State | 68 | 1997-03-14 | Murray State | 2 | 15 |
Utah | 75 | Navy | 61 | 1997-03-14 | Navy | 2 | 15 |
South Carolina | 65 | Coppin State | 78 | 1997-03-14 | Coppin State | 15 | 15 |
UCLA | 109 | Charleston Southern | 75 | 1997-03-13 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 66 | UNC Greensboro | 61 | 1996-03-15 | UNC Greensboro | 2 | 15 |
Georgetown | 93 | Miss Valley State | 56 | 1996-03-15 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 92 | South Carolina State | 54 | 1996-03-15 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Wake Forest | 64 | Northeast Louisiana | 50 | 1996-03-15 | Northeast Louisiana | 2 | 15 |
March Madness 2 vs 15 Betting History FAQ
Where can I bet on the 2 vs 15 seed March Madness games?
Experienced bettors and casual fans looking to bet on the 2 vs 15 seed March Madness games should refer to Odds Shark's Best March Madness Betting Sites Online guide. The guide reviews the top NCAAB tournament sportsbooks and gives insight into the best place to bet on March Madness this year.
How do I bet on the 2 vs 15 seed March Madness games?
There are multiple ways to bet on the 2 vs 15 seed March Madness games, including a moneyline bet, a spread bet, or many different props. Odds Shark's How to Bet on March Madness guide outlines all the bet formats you can utilize during the NCAAB tournament and some general March Madness betting tips for each.
When was the last time a 15 seed beat a 2 seed in March Madness?
The last time a 15 seed beat a 2 seed in March Madness was in 2023 when the underdog Princeton Tigers knocked off the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats 59-55 in the South Region.