Houston Vs Tennessee Preview & Picks: A Clash of Defenses

Two of the best defensive teams in America clash in the NCAA tournament Midwest Regional final in Indianapolis, with a berth in the Final Four on the line. No. 1 seed Houston is a 3.5-point favorite Sunday over No. 2 seed Tennessee, and points promise to be at a premium—the Cougars lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of 58.5 points per game, while the Volunteers are eighth allowing 62.9.

Houston enters the Elite 8 having won 16 consecutive games, but has failed to cover in six of its last nine, including its two most recent contests in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee has won six of seven and covered in four of its last six, beating the spread in each of its last two games in the Big Dance.  

Houston vs Tennessee Odds

Matchup Page: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougars, Mar. 30, 2:20 pm ET

Odds as of March 30, 2025 at Sportsbook

Houston vs Tennessee preview & picks

This game a nightmare to handicap, given the uncanny similarities between the teams. Houston and Tennessee both smother opponents on the defense end, and have guards who can put up incredible scoring nights on offense. The Cougars and Vols rank first and third respectively in defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, and have legit stars in Chaz Lanier (averaging 18 ppg for Tennessee) and L.J. Cryer (averaging 15.3 ppg for Houston).

So yeah, we’re really splitting hairs here. Tennessee has played a better schedule—the Vols’ slate is ranked 11th at KenPom, compared to the Cougars’ at 25th. Tennessee has also had a fairly easy time in this NCAA tournament, dispatching UCLA in the second round before blowing out Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Houston had to scratch and claw in the final minute to outlast Gonzaga, and then needed a last-second bucket Friday night to eliminate Purdue.

Houston is the top seed, but Tennessee has looked better so far in this tournament, has played the tougher schedule in the tougher conference, and has been better ATS as of late. The Cougars also lost outright and ATS to both SEC teams they faced previously this season, Auburn and Alabama in November. It all swings us toward the Volunteers, who should have the majority of the crowd in Lucas Oil Stadium. 

Houston vs Tennessee Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (-118)

The defense both teams play has been evident against the total—Houston has gone UNDER in 58 percent of games this season, according to data at TeamRankings.com, while Tennessee has gone UNDER in 57 percent. The Vols have gone UNDER in three of their last five, the Cougars in six of their last nine. It all points to a grinder Sunday in Indianapolis.

Houston vs Tennessee Pick: UNDER 123.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Saturday, March 29 at 1:30 pm ET

Houston vs Tennessee Prop Bet: Chaz Lanier 18+ Points (-120)

The Tennessee guard has put up double-figures in 20 straight games, and has been particularly effective in the NCAA tournament, where he’s averaging 22 points per contest. Houston for all its stinginess on defense can still give up big nights to cinduvial players—Graham Ike of Gonzaga lit up the Cougars for 27 in the second round, Tahaad Pettiford struck for 20 in an early-season contest, and Mark Sears of Alabama burned them for 24.

Houston vs Tennessee Betting Trends