Trevor Lawrence leads the Jacksonville Jaguars into the 2024 NFL season with high expectations. After making significant strides last year, the Jaguars are poised to challenge for the AFC South title and perhaps a playoff run this fall. Odds Shark's 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars season betting preview breaks down all the odds, key storylines and our best bets.
2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Super Bowl & AFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | AFC Championship Odds | AFC South Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +5000 | +2300 | +270 |
Odds as of August 22
Take into account, the Jags started last season 8-3 and looked like runaway division champions. As such, I'm jumping all over Jacksonville at +270 to win the AFC South this year. While the immense talents of C.J. Stroud have accelerated Houston's rebuild, they face the tall task of overcoming a first place schedule in 2024.
Jacksonville drafted burner Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU and signed Gabe Davis away from Buffalo to take advantage of Lawrence's deep ball. Head coach Doug Pederson loves to attack the intermediate areas of the field, and we've already seen what his guidance has done for the likes of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles under center. As the level of talent around him grows, I expect Lawrence to take another leap this season.
With the additions of Mitch Morse and Ezra Cleveland, Jacksonville's offense line has also improved. Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison lock down the tackle spots with crucial depth behind them. Oh, and former San Francisco 49ers star Arik Armstead adds some real beef and even more pass-rushing chops to a defensive line that already includes Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Any way you slice it, Shahid Khan's squad is set up for success in 2024.
I love the value on Jacksonville to win the AFC South. After all, they're 8-4 against the division over the past two seasons, and should simply need to continue their momentum into December to finish the job. While I'm bullish on the Jags this season, betting them to win the Super Bowl is a fools errand. Lawrence will lead the Jags to new frontiers in the coming years, but I'm not betting my hard earned money on him going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson this season.
2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | -115 | -105 | 9-8 | 9-8 | 8-9 |
Odds as of August 22
Keep an eye on the Jags as home underdogs this season. They finished a perfect 5-0 ATS in that scenario in 2023, and figure to be home dogs in a number of contests again this year. Home games against the Packers, Texans and Jets are the perfect games to back Jacksonville in.
Warren Sharp, founder of Sharp Football Analysis, also notes that the Jaguars will have a +4 net rest edge over their opponents this season. Meaning they will have an added four days of rest over their opponents.
Jacksonville has finished 9-8 over the past two seasons, and I like them to win at least nine contests again. They play rookie quarterbacks in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, while also facing the Sam Darnold-led Vikings, Will Levis' Titans twice, and visit old friend Gardner Minshew and the Raiders. The early part of the season is a gauntlet, with six playoff teams on the schedule in the first nine weeks. However, I love the idea of sitting on Jacksonville and betting their win total OVER just before a much easier second half of the season.
2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| +118 | -144 |
Odds as of August 22
I believe Doug Pederson's squad improves this season so I like the Jags at +118 to make the playoffs. Per Sharp, they have an average strength of schedule at 14th in the NFL, and late season matchups with the Titans, Raiders and Vikings help their case.
Jacksonville lost more points on dropped passes than any team in the NFL in 2023, meaning the additions of Davis and Thomas will be critical to team success. A healthy Lawrence leading a more consistent offense is a recipe for success. Which makes backing the Jags at plus-money to make the playoffs an excellent value play.
2024 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | +3000 |
Odds as of August 22
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Is there a chance Trevor Lawrence goes nuclear this season and wins the NFL MVP award. For sure. Do I believe 2024 to be the year that happens? No.
I can't get myself to pull the trigger on Lawrence at +3000 odds. He was injured for long stretches of last season and it showed. Lawrence finished seventh in rate of incompletions due to inaccurate passes last year, and put up -.14 EPA when trailing in the second half. He's also lost the most fumbles (21) of any quarterback since 2021.
While he's sure to improve on last year's putrid numbers, Lawrence would have to have a season for the ages to take home the MVP in 2024, and the chances of that happening are slim.
