The New England Patriots enter the 2024 season with a bleak outlook. That pessimism is evident in their 4.5 season win total set by oddsmakers and fans are well aware this is a rebuilding season in Foxborough.
The most exciting thing Patriots have to look forward to this season is the debut of rookie QB Drake Maye who was selected with the No. 3 overall pick. Unfortunately, Maye will be riding the pine to start the season while Jacoby Brissett takes the reins. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Maye will take over for Brissett at some point this season and with the first four games against solid defenses (Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers), New England's approach makes sense.
The Patriots had a solid defense last season, but it's fair to wonder how much of their performance was attributed to Bill Belichick. Instead of the legendary former Patriots coach scheming and calling plays, it will be first time DC DeMarcus Covington. Rumors circulated that the Patriots settled for Convington and he wasn't their first, second, or even third choice for the role.
Below you'll find several options for betting the Patriots this season, including how I'm approaching each market.
2024 New England Patriots Super Bowl & AFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | AFC Championship Odds | AFC East Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +30000 | +10000 | +2800 |
Odds as of September 3 on BetMGM
Betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl feels akin to making a donation to a sportsbook. The Patriots enter the season with extremely long odds to win it all (+30000). Using our odds calculator, you can see that at those odds a $10 bet would win $3,000 and a $100 bet would win $30,000. While those are certainly some juicy odds, the talent void on the Patriots roster prohibits me from betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, the AFC, or the AFC East.
2024 New England Patriots Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | -135 | +110 | 4-13 | 5-11-1 | 7-10 |
Odds as of September 3 on BetMGM
The Patriots were a bad team to bet on last season, finishing 5-11-1 ATS. I think the presence of Belichick caused oddsmakers and bettors to be weary of laying too many points against the Patriots, but looking back they were a bad team all season who should been larger underdogs in several games. It seems like forever ago, but in Week 1 last year, many were predicting the Patriots to upset the Eagles.
Slowly throughout the season, the Patriots revealed themselves to be a bad team, especially on the offensive side, as Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe struggled mightily to score points.
This season, considering how tough the Patriots' schedule is, I love the under 4.5 wins +110 price at BetMGM. I've also dabbled in the under 3.5 alt wins market because I think this team really is that bad.
2024 New England Patriots Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| +850 | -1600 |
Odds as of September 3 on BetMGM
This summer, I remember thinking, "The Patriots will be awful this year, but at least their defense will be good." Now, I'm also losing confidence in their defenders.
New England traded away pass rusher Matthew Judon to the Falcons and 25-year-old defensive lineman Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots. Simone TakiTaki (LB) is on the PUP list and out for at least four weeks and those subtractions from the front seven will put more pressure on the guys in the secondary.
I feel confident about the Patriots missing the playoffs, but no thanks to the -1600 odds.
2024 New England Patriots Offensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | +1600 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | +10000 |
Odds as of September 3 on BetMGM
There is no question that Maye has the talent to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there are several factors working against him. First, this field is loaded with other stud QBs including Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels. That trio will start Week 1 and have an opportunity to stack up statistics and get the attention of voters while Maye is on the bench.
Furthermore, the lack of talent in New England, especially on the offensive line and the WR position, caps any ceiling Maye has this year.
Polk's +10000 odds are tempting and I can't blame anyone for sprinkling a little on it since he has such little competition for targets in New England. However, it will be tough to put up award-winning numbers with mediocre QB play and a bad offensive line, so I'm staying away.
