The San Francisco 49ers are in trouble.
They've lost three of their last five games, are slipping out of the NFC West playoff picture, and just got blown out by the Packers. But, I still think the 49ers have a chance as seven-point underdogs against the Bills this weekend. If Brock Purdy is back and healthy at QB for San Francisco, I think the 49ers can cover seven points and maybe even upset Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. The 49ers are +240 on the moneyline at BetMGM.
The Bills have covered just twice in their last five games against NFC opponents and the 49ers are looking to take advantage of that inter-conference trend:
49ers vs Bills Odds Week 13
San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills, Dec. 1, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +7 (-115) | +240 | O 45.0 (-110) |
| Bills | -7 (-105) | -300 | U 45.0 (-110) |
As of November 26th at BetMGM
49ers vs Bills Picks Week 13
49ers +7 (-115)
This one's a bet on Brock Purdy's health. I'll break down the San Fran QB's latest health updates below, but it does seem like there's a good chance he plays this week. The 49ers have disappointed this year, but they've still managed to cover +7 points in all but one game Purdy has played this year. Heck, if the 49ers were +7 dogs in every game of Purdy's career, the QB would be 28-3 against the spread.
Seven points is just so many for any team to cover, especially against a 49ers team that is unquestionably talented. Even with three losses in their last five games, the 49ers still rank well above league average in expected wins, point differential, and EPA.
The Bills are coming off a bye week for this game, but the 49ers are also one of the best teams in football on a rest distadvantage. In the last five years, San Francisco is 11-7 straight up and 10-8 against the spread with less rest than the opponent.
49ers Vs bills Prop Pick
Josh Allen Anytime TD
Josh Allen is taking the ball back in his hands lately. The Bills QB has rushed the ball 20 times in the last two weeks, posting his two best rushing performances of the season (105 yards and two touchdowns).
Allen has found the pay dirt in each of the last two games and now he faces a 49ers defense that's allowed three QB rushing TDs in 11 games this season (seventh-most in the NFL). San Francisco's rushing defense in general has been suspect lately, allowing over 160 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Packers last week. I expect Allen to take advantage and scamper for a score once again.
49ers Vs Bills News
Brock Purdy Injury Looms Large
I know we've called Brock Purdy a 'system QB' for a while now, but I think last week is a good piece of evidence that it's not the case. With Purdy, hurt the 49ers couldn't move the ball. They tallied just 199 passing yards and scored just 10 points against the Packers.
Purdy has resumed throwing "without issue" per coach Kyle Shanahan, but he's still questionable for this Week 13 game with a shoulder injury. If Purdy is out, I'd expect this line to move a few points toward the Bills. If he plays, I really think the 49ers can cover seven. So, be sure to check in on the health of San Fran's QB before locking in any bet.
#49ers Brock Purdy resumed throwing today without issue, according to Kyle Shanahan
— 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙎𝙁𝙉𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨 (@TheSFNiners) November 25, 2024
(via @nwagoner) pic.twitter.com/eTrUzKsjj9
49ers vs Bills Betting Trends
- The OVER has hit in Buffalo's last eight home games
- The 49ers are 7-3 in their last 10 road games
- The 49ers are 0-6 against the spread in their last six against top-10 defenses
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights:
