NFL Division Futures Betting Handles: Steelers Making Sportsbooks Sweat!

The NFL preseason is underway and with the regular season following shortly, it’s important for casual fans and bettors alike to know oddsmakers’ expectations for teams. Whether you agree or disagree with the odds, knowing where they stand can help you make informed decisions and also illustrate where there may be value for you as a bettor to wager relative to the market.

These days, there are odds on just about anything in the NFL, including a team’s odds to make and miss the postseason, last undefeated team, last winless team, season win totals, conference and Super Bowl odds.

But in the NFL the most basic path to making the playoffs has always been through the division, and with every team playing six divisional games, the relative strength or weakness of a team’s division will go a long way towards its postseason hopes.

Let’s take a look at the betting favorite to win each of the eight NFL divisions from a top tier sportsbook, along with the odds for all 32 teams and where the action has been so far:

AFC East

The Jets have been a source of disappointment for their fans for years, but now sportsbooks are hoping for the same luck. With Aaron Rodgers back healthy to start the season (again), more than half the wagers (55%) and the vast majority of the money (83%) have come in on Gang Green to win the AFC East. New York has taken the second-most money of any team to win its division at the book. Will this Jets team live up to the hype?

AFC North

The Ravens (+135) and Bengals (+165) are expected to fight it out for the division crown and depending on the book, either team is the favorite. At seemingly all books, the Steelers (52% of AFC North divisional bets, 47% of handle) are the most-bet team to win the division. And with those juicy odds (Pittsburgh opened 12-1), that is some serious building liability. Now just imagine if they traded for WR Brandon Aiyuk …

AFC South

Houston has been installed as favorites to win the AFC South by oddsmakers (and bettors) for the first time since 2019. It’s a division ruled by young QBs, as Trevor Lawrence (age 24) is suddenly the eldest statesman at the signal-caller position entering his fourth NFL season.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud has high individual expectations as well, as he has the fourth-best odds (+1000) to win NFL MVP behind Patrick Mahomes. The vast majority of bets (57%) and handle (82%) have been on Houston to win the AFC South, although not oddsmakers are sold. “I don’t think his rookie year was an aberration,” one oddsmaker told me. “But sometimes players regress a little.”

AFC West

The Chiefs have won this division eight years in a row (the most consecutive division crowns since New England won 11 straight from 2009-2019), and oddsmakers see no reason it won’t continue this season.

Kansas City has the most bets and total dollars wagered to win the AFC West, including a $250,404 wager at -250 odds – the biggest divisional wager at the sportsbook. Some respected bettors I’ve spoken with do see value in betting the Chargers as well, expecting a big turnaround from Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert.

NFC East

The NFC East is always a wacky division, but this favorite has flipped. Dallas opened as the +130 favorite, but an overwhelming amount of wagers and money has come in on Philadelphia, moving them into the odds-on favorite.

“There’s been some sharp money on Philadelphia to win the division,” one oddsmaker told me. The lion’s share of the handle (78%) has been on the Eagles to take back the NFC East crown.

NFC North

It’s a rare sight to see Minnesota with the worst odds in the NFC North: This is the first time since 2014 that the Vikings are the longest shot of the four teams to win the division.

Meanwhile, the Lions, coming off an NFC North crown in 2023 are the rightful division favorites. Detroit has amassed the most wagers (37%) and money wagered (53%) of any NFC North team to win the division. Surprisingly, the Bears (30%) have the second-most bets to win.

“Chicago has taken a lot of over and under bets,” an oddsmaker told me.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons are listed as NFC South divisional favorites? It’s quite a jump for a team that hasn’t won the division since 2016. Kirk Cousins steps in as a starter for a Falcons team that went 7-10 last season, but suffered from awful QB play. The vast majority of bets (38%) and money (64%) are on Atlanta.

NFC West

The 49ers have won the NFC West the last two seasons (and three of the past five), so they’re familiar with being the favorite. They clearly have the best roster in the division, although the Brandon Aiyuk situation is looming.

The 49ers and Chiefs are tied at many sportsbooks for the highest season win total at 11.5, but the Rams (+325) actually have the most bets (30%) to win the NFC West. This is also one of the most evenly-bet divisions, with every team garnering at least 16% of the bets.