I'm breaking down the Patriots vs Jaguars odds for Week 7 below, with eyes on an OVER.
The sportsbooks don't see a very high-scoring game in London, with the point total set at 42.5 at Caesers Sportsbook. But I think we could see plenty of points.
Let's take a look at the latest Patriots vs Jaguars odds and picks below:
Patriots vs Jaguars Odds Week 7
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday Oct. 20, 9:30 am ET
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +5.5 (-110) | +205 | O 42.5 (-115) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.5 (-110) | -250 | U 42.5 (-105) |
As of October 17th at Caesars Sportsbook
Patriots vs Jaguars Picks Week 7
OVER 42.5 Points (-110)
The overall trends don't tell us much, with the Jaguars and Patriots both hitting the OVER in 50% of contests this season. But, for a line as low as 42.5, this is a very achievable OVER.
The Jaguars have gone above this mark in their last four games while the Pats have gone OVER 42.5 in two of the last three. I also think both Jacksonville and New England are playing offensively well, lately. The Pats set a season-high with 21 points in Drake Maye's debut last week while the Jaguars have scored 53 points over the last two weeks.
The Jags, especially, can do some heavy lifting here. They may rank out 21st in total points scored, but come in league average for expected points added per offensive play. The OVER has hit in six of Jacksonville's last eight games against bottom-10 scoring defenses, as pointed out by Outlier Betting Trends.
Patriots vs Jaguars Prop Pick
Trevor Lawrence OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Trevor Lawrence hasn't been the problem for Jacksonville lately. The Jags QB has averaged 302.5 passing yards the last two weeks and has gone OVER this 223.5 passing yard mark in four of his last five home games (London is basically home for the Jags).
As well, the Patriots' passing defense isn't as good as I think public perception says it is. New England's secondary has allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL this season, letting up an average of 241 per game. The opposing QB has gone over 223.5 passing yards in three of the last five against New England.
Patriots vs Jaguars News
There are a few storylines to watch for this game. The first one is Drake Maye's second career start. The rookie passer will make his first road start this week after his debut against the Texans last week (243 yards, three TDs).
Another bit of news is the hot seat of Jags coach Doug Pederson. With Jacksonville's brutal start, Pederson's status as Jags coach has been debated over the last few weeks. A loss to the Pats could prompt a coaching change in Florida.
Patriots vs Jaguars Betting Trends
- Trevor Lawrence has gone OVER 223.5 passing yards in four of his last five home games (Jags are technically the home team in London)
- The Patriots are 3-7 in their last 10 games away from New England
- The OVER has hit in six of the Jags' last eight games against bottom-10 defenses
- The Jags are 1-4 against the spread in their last five against bottom-10 defenses
