The Eagles deserve to be at the top of Super Bowl odds. But instead, they sit behind the Lions and Bills, tied with the Chiefs at +500.
To me, this Philly team looks like a force to be reckoned with. They're undervalued in title odds and bettors still haven't caught on. I think the Eagles have a real shot to dethrone the vaunted Lions in an NFC Championship game and go on to win the 2025 Super Bowl:
Why The Eagles Are Super Bowl Candidates
Since a Week 5 bye week, the Eagles are 8-0 with a +112 point differential. They're 6-2 against the spread in that stretch, too. While all the hype is on Detroit and Buffalo, these Eagles have been the best team in football for months.
PFF agrees with me — with data showing the Eagles are the second-best team in the NFL right now, by overall team grade:
The main reason the Eagles are so dominant is the defense. Per PFF, they've got easily the best defensive unit in football and that produces across every defensive metric. They Eagles are top-10 in sacks, forced fumbles, rushing yards against, and passing yards against. It all combines for the Eagles to allow just 18.2 points per game against.
This defensive prowess has come under new DC Vic Fangio, and it's clear the coach's tactics really started clicking after an early bye. Since then, the Eagles haven't lost a game, holding opponents to just 15.25 points per game. Offenses like the Bengals, Commanders, and Ravens (that all rank top-five in scoring) have been held to under 20 points. For you total bettors, the Eagles are 5-3 (+1.54 units) on the UNDER in that stretch.
I know it's a saying that's thrown around too much, but defense really does win championships. Of the last 12 Super Bowl Champs, 11 had a top-10 scoring defense in the regular season. This Eagles are built in that same mold.
Bettors Still Aren't Buying The Eagles
Even with these eight-straight wins, Philly is still a Super Bowl odds outsider. Clearly some bettors are in on the Eagles, as Philly’s odds have moved up from +1400 to start the season (including having a big jump last week from +650 to +500).
But, per BetMGM’s data, bettors still aren’t as invested in the Eagles as I am. Philly isn’t in the top-three in total Super Bowl bets or money wagered, as those spots go to the Lions, Chiefs and Ravens in both categories. The Eagles deserve to be in that tier.
If you want to bet on a value team, take the Eagles. If you want to fade the public, take the Eagles. If you want to bet on the best team in football over the last two months... guess what? Take the Eagles.
Why I'm Taking Eagles Over Lions
One of the big reasons I'm buying up all the Eagles stock (on top of everything I've already said) is that I think they've got a real shot to beat the Lions when it matters most — and Detroit is really the only team in their way in the NFC.
Per BetMGM data, 36% of all bets and 43.3% of the handle is resting on the Lions to win the NFC. But, I think that’s a weakness us Eagles truthers can exploit.
The Lions are 12-1 and the NFC's best team right now. But, they've played suspect games recently. They barely beat the Bears on Thanksgiving, snuck by the Vikings by two points, and had to come back from down 20 points to the Texans to win in November. Even Week 14's TNF win over the Packers exposed some real defensive weaknesses in Detroit. They're going to crack soon.
One big reason for these recent Lions struggles is injuries. The Lions are likely to be without DE Aidan Hutchinson and MLB Malcolm Rodriguez for the rest of the season. Plus, key defenders like Ifeatu Melifonwu, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes are also all hurt — all players who will be key to stopping Saquon Barkley in a playoff matchup against the Eagles. We saw Josh Jacobs torch this injured Lions D for three touchdowns in Week 14, imagine what Saquon will do.
The @Lions' current injury report. Holy crap. pic.twitter.com/YR4Pwhgryo
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 4, 2024
I also think the Eagles still have a shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Lions have the third-hardest remaining schedule in football, while the Eagles have the 10th-easiest. Philly has a real path to overtake the Eagles and get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If Philly can snatch that bye, they might be the Super Bowl favorites by the time this regular season ends.
