We've got a battle of division leaders this week.
The Steelers and Eagles, two juggernauts, meet in Philly this weekend, with the Eagles sitting as 5.5-point favorites at FanDuel. Both of these teams have elite defenses, causing the point total to move down to O/U 42.5, but I actually think the OVER is a decent value play:
Steelers vs Eagles Odds Week 15
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Dec. 15, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +5.5 (-115) | +194 | O 42.5 (-120) |
| Eagles | -5.5 (-105) | -235 | U 42.5 (-102) |
As of December 10th at FanDuel
Steelers vs Eagles Picks Week 15
OVER 42.5 (-120)
I get why this point total is low. The Eagles and Steelers both have top-five defenses in points allowed and defensive EPA (expected points added per play). But, 42.5 is just too low of a line. Five of the last seven Eagles' games have gone OVER this mark and four of the last six Steelers' contests have, as well.
The key for getting OVER this mark is not that I don't buy Philly or Pittsburgh's defensive prowess. It's actually a respect to the offense. In the last six weeks, the Steelers averaged 27 points per game. The Eagles averaged 28.5 in their last six games. Both the Eagles and Steelers rank top-10 in points scored and above average in offensive EPA this year. We don't see point total lines this low for top-10 offenses often — for a reason.
Steelers vs Eagles Player Props
Mike Williams Anytime TD
With George Pickens out last weekend, new Steelers WR Mike Williams stepped up. He saw four targets (most of all receivers) and three catches for 36 yards. Pickens is also expected to be out this weekend, leaving Williams as Pittsburgh's top deep threat once again. The Steelers WR has just one touchdown on the year, but he'll fill the exact role Pickens plays — which resulted in three touchdowns for George in the previous six games.
The Eagles are also a shut-down defense against both running backs and tight ends (allowing bottom-10 yardage to those positions). So, I think the receiver passing game — and thus Williams — will be the biggest part of Pittsburgh's offense this weekend.
Steelers vs Eagles Player News
The big story to monitor ahead of this Sunday game is the health status of Steelers WR George Pickens. Initially, it was thought Pickens would miss just last week with a hamstring injury. But, recent reports indicate the injury is "more serious than the team thought." However, he has not been officially ruled out for Week 15. If Pickens does play, I would not bet on Mike Williams' Anytime TD line anymore and could consider taking the Steelers ML.
Steelers vs Eagles Betting Trends
- The Eagles are 5-10 against the spread in their last 15 games as favs
- The OVER has hit in seven of the Steelers' last nine games as dogs
- The Steelers are 4-1 in their last five against top-10 defenses
- Saquon Barkley has gone OVER 101.5 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games (he's -120 to go O101.5 at FanDuel this week)
All NFL betting trends from Outlier Trends:
