I've got two Anytime Touchdown bets for this weekend's NFL's Week 12 slate.
I'm pairing a lock with a long shot this week, looking at Rams RB Kyren Williams and Miami TE Jonnu Smith to find the end zone. Both players have soft matchups (for their specific positions) with games against the Patriots and Raiders this week.
Here are my NFL anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 11:
Week 11 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
| Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|
| 6-12 | -2.60 |
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-220)
Kyren Williams may be the safest touchdown bet in football this season (perhaps behind just Derrick Henry). The Rams RB has scored 10 touchdowns in nine games, cashing his Anytime TD bet in seven of nine contests.
With a matchup against the Patriots this week, Williams is a near-lock to get back in the end zone. New England has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs in 10 games this year (fourth-most in football).
Kyren Williams finds the end zone for the @RamsNFL.
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
📺: #LARvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/pI8UcwInI4
I know this TD bet is a bit of a lower line, but it's the perfect wager to add to a parlay. Or, if you're looking for a long shot, you can look to my next pick, below.
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (+320)
With Tyreek Hill nursing a serious injury, Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith became the core of Miami's offense last week. Smith, the tight end, caught three passes on four targets. This has been a growing trend for Smith, who's seen at least four targets in each of the last five weeks, averaging 6.2 targets per contest since Week 5.
Now Smith faces a Raiders defense that's been one of the worst in football at defending tight ends this year, allowing five TE TDs in nine games (third-most in the NFL). Last Raiders game, Las Vegas allowed 100 yards and two touchdowns to Bengals TE Mike Gesicki.
See Our Best NFL Betting Sites Here
Week 11 First Touchdown Scorer Bets
If you want to risk it even a little further, here are the odds for Williams and Smith's first touchdown scorer bets this week at BetMGM, as well as a few other 1st TD wagers I like this week:
- Kyren Williams (LAR) 1st TD: +300
- Jonnu Smith (MIA) 1st TD: +3200
- Nick Chubb (CLE) 1st TD: +600
- George Pickens (PIT) 1st TD: +1000
Anytime TD scorer bets are a hot bet in 2024, with the market up 76% this season, per BetMGM's statistics, and a lot more users are looking for the increased payout of a 1st TD scorer bet, too. These bets are a bit harder to nail, but come with significantly increased odds compared to an anytime wager.
A large reason for this increase in 1st TD bets is BetMGM's 'Second Chance Promotion,' which offers bettors the chance to win back their stake if a first touchdown scorer doesn't open the game with a TD, but ends up being the second scorer. So if you're going to place one of these first touchdown bets this week, or at any point this season, be sure to do so over at BetMGM.
How To Understand NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for our recommended bets, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Cooper Kupp – Rams +120
Tee Higgins – Bengals +150
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is a player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Cooper Kupp. Based on Kupp’s implied odds from sportsbooks, he has a 45.45 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Tee Higgins will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $66.67. If you make that bet and Higgins scores, your $66.67 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Kupp or Higgins. In this case, you decide to bet on the Bengals’ Joe Burrow at +500.
If you bet $100 on Burrow and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $600 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook will give you $500 in profit for your winning bet. If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
