I've got two Anytime Touchdown bets for this weekend's NFL's Week 12 slate.
I'm going with two juicy plus-money touchdown picks for this week of action, targeting Patriots lead running back Rhamondre Stevenson and Kansas City's star tight end, Travis Kelce. Neither player has found the end zone in the last two weeks, but both have good matchups to get back to scoring this week.
After nailing a big +320 Jonnu Smith bet last week, here are my NFL anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 12:
Week 12 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
| Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|
| 7-14 | -0.40 |
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+120)
The Patriots' offense may not be sexy, but Rhamondre Stevenson remains a bell-cow back in that offense. He's had at least 21 touches in three of the last four weeks and has three touchdowns in that month of games, too.
On the year, Stevenson has cashed his Anytime TD line in five of 10 contests, so getting plus money is already some decent line value. But, I think he's got a particularly soft matchup this week to get back in the pay dirt. The Pats face a Miami defense that's been shockingly bad at defending running backs this season, allowing 13 touchdowns to the position in just 10 games (fourth-most in the NFL). Since the start of last year, Stevenson has two touchdowns in three contests against this Miami defense.
As long as the Patriots get near the goal line, Stevenson will have a shot to cash this bet. Only Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry have a higher percentage of their teams' carries inside the five-yard line (91.7% for Stevenson).
Rhamondre Stevenson takes it in for the @Patriots TD!
— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
📺: #NEvsTEN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/p2MXEwSVnQ
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+105)
It's been so hard to get a gauge on Travis Kelce this season. Some weeks, he's catching 10 passes for 100 yards and two weeks later he's got two receptions and single-digit yardage.
But, this week the Chiefs tight end has as soft of a matchup as he can draw. No team has allowed more tight end touchdowns than Kansas City's opponent this week, the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has allowed seven TE scores in 10 games, and the post fantasy points to the tight end position this year.
I think it's important to look at matchups for Kelce, in particular. His two best offensive days this season came against Tampa Bay (14 recs, 100 yards) and Las Vegas (10 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD). Both the Bucs and Raiders rank bottom-five in production allowed to opposing tight ends. So, with Kelce facing another bad tight end defense, this week is the spot to take advantage.
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Week 12 First Touchdown Scorer Bets
If you want to risk it even a little further, here are the odds for Stevenson and Kelce's first touchdown scorer bets this week at BetMGM, as well as a few other 1st TD wagers I like this week:
- Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 1st TD: +750
- Travis Kelce (KC) 1st TD: +360
- Adam Trautman (CLE) 1st TD: +2000
- Brian Robinson Jr. (WSH) 1st TD: +375
Anytime TD scorer bets are a hot bet in 2024, with the market up 76% this season, per BetMGM's statistics, and a lot more users are looking for the increased payout of a 1st TD scorer bet, too. These bets are a bit harder to nail, but come with significantly increased odds compared to an anytime wager.
A large reason for this increase in 1st TD bets is BetMGM's 'Second Chance Promotion,' which offers bettors the chance to win back their stake if a first touchdown scorer doesn't open the game with a TD, but ends up being the second scorer. So if you're going to place one of these first touchdown bets this week, or at any point this season, be sure to do so over at BetMGM.
How To Understand NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for our recommended bets, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Cooper Kupp – Rams +120
Tee Higgins – Bengals +150
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is a player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Cooper Kupp. Based on Kupp’s implied odds from sportsbooks, he has a 45.45 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Tee Higgins will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $66.67. If you make that bet and Higgins scores, your $66.67 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Kupp or Higgins. In this case, you decide to bet on the Bengals’ Joe Burrow at +500.
If you bet $100 on Burrow and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $600 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook will give you $500 in profit for your winning bet. If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
