The big game is finally here! Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to battle Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 58. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has expertly guided his squad to six straight AFC Championship berths and their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the past five years. A victory will produce the NFL's first back-to-back champions since the New England Patriots in 2003-2004, and confirm Kansas City as the NFL's modern dynasty. The Chiefs fight not only the 49ers, but for their place in the annals of NFL history.
Here's three reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl, and take home their third Lombardi Trophy in the past five years.
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Patrick Mahomes
He’s a reason all on his own folks.
Patrick Lavon Mahomes II has been unbelievable in his playoff career. In 17 playoff starts, Mahomes has gone 14-3 while completing over 67% of passes for 4,802 yards, 39 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He’s added 458 yards and five scores on the ground. Those numbers nearly mimic his 2022 NFL MVP award winning season, when he threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.
The two-time Super Bowl champion has been unconscious in recent playoff history. In his past six postseason games, Mahomes has completed 70% of his passes, with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Gonna watch this on repeat and just giggle a lot.
— BJ Kissel (@BJ_KCSN) January 31, 2024
We're lucky to get to watch Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce together. pic.twitter.com/Lb3UHKrPoD
Mahomes is now 11-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, with nine SU victories.
Additionally, the Chiefs are the ninth team in the last 20 years to be upset winners in both the Divisional Round and Conference Championship. Six of those previous eight teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl.
Yet another Super Bowl betting trend also heavily favours the Chiefs. Since 2001, Underdogs are 15-7 ATS in the Super Bowl. All signs point to Patrick Mahomes going absolutely ballistic in Super Bowl 58, and leading his team to victory. He's an excellent bet as the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP.
49ers Struggles Stopping the Run/Isiah Pacheco
In an about face from previous years’, San Francisco has struggled stopping the run this season. Steve Wilks’ unit has suffered some injuries. But, the 49ers ranked 15th in rushing defense DVOA this season, after ranking first last year.
San Fran allowed only 97 rushing yards per game this season, but that number has ballooned to 147 per game over their past three contests. Pacheco has averaged 90 total yards per game over his playoff career, and has scored in four consecutive playoff games. He’s seen 20+ rushing attempts per game this postseason, and will be the driving force of the Chiefs’ offensive gameplan in Super Bowl 58.
Yes, Isiah Pacheco has seen the memes about his running style 😂
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 28, 2024
The @Chiefs RB sat down with @jjones9 to discuss his favorite ones, his dance moves, and the AFC Championship game. pic.twitter.com/uihzndZsBB
Kansas City can’t afford to allow the 49ers dangerous defensive front to tee off against their vulnerable offensive tackles. The Chiefs’ duo of Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor combined to allow 89 quarterback pressures and seven sacks this season. Andy Reid is one of, if not the greatest offensive minds’ in the history of the NFL. He’ll be aware of his units’ weaknesses. The Chiefs best chance of slowing down the game-wrecking skills of Nick Bosa, Chase Young and co. is to run it right at ‘em.
Pacheco’s Super Bowl 58 rushing yardage prop is currently set at 67.5 yards. He’s -130 to score a touchdown, and +550 to score the Super Bowl’s first touchdown. Be sure to throw a unit on the over, and Pacheco to score in Super Bowl 58. You can also find Pacheco to rush for 30-plus yards in each half at +200 odds in the Super Bowl player props.
Historical Defense
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnoulo has produced the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era. In fact, Kansas City has allowed 28 points or less in all 20 games this season, the most in NFL history.
Even the legendary 2000 Ravens defense accomplished this feat in only 19 games. The 2002 Bucs, 2005 Steelers, 2010 Packers also allowed 28 points or less in 19 games. All four teams went to the Super Bowl, and left with the Lombardi Trophy.
Spagnuolo is a defensive mastermind. The Chiefs defensive coordinator has done a masterful job corralling some of the top offenses in the sport. Kansas City registered the second-best scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing only 17.3 points per game. Somehow, against the league’s most lethal signal-callers, that number has fallen to just 13.7 in the playoffs. Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore ranked second, third, and fourth respectively in offensive DVOA this season. The top-ranked squad? Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers.
Steve Spagnuolo has been his bag all year disguising coverages 💰
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 26, 2024
Watch as this 2-high dime look transforms into single-high, creating chaos that leads to an INT @GregCosell | @NFLMatchup | @DariusJButler pic.twitter.com/TEAhSuL9Jb
It’s not just what Spags does, it’s who he is. Remember, Spagnuolo was behind the 2007 Giants take down of the previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42. He got the better of Shanahan in both Super Bowl 54, and Week 7 of the 2022 season. Spags is certain to have a trick, or two up his sleeve to limit the 49ers wide zone scheme, and mystify Brock Purdy with a plethora of coverage disguises and post-snap rotations.
Kansas City’s defensive dominance makes the 49ers UNDER 23.5 points team total an intriguing bet at +102.
