The undefeated Chiefs are finally underdogs. For the first time this season, sportsbooks expect the Chiefs to lose — but I'm not convinced.
The Bills open this Week 11 game as 1.5-point favorites and -136 on the moneyline. But, I don't really see a reason to doubt Kansas City. I'll break down complete Chiefs vs Bills odds and why I'm backing Kansas City below:
Chiefs vs Bills Odds Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Nov. 17, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1.5 (-105) | +116 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -1.5 (-105) | -136 | U 46.5 (-110) |
As of November 13th at FanDuel
I'm going with the FanDuel moneyline odds for my pick this week, but if you want to take Kansas City on the spread the best number I found was +2.5 (-115) at Caesars Sporstbook. So, be sure to shop around for your specific wager.
Chiefs vs Bills Picks Week 11
Chiefs Moneyline (+116)
Betting on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is the smartest bet in football. The Chiefs under Mahomes are 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread when oddsmakers doubt them.
I understand that all major metrics and algorthims show this one as a coin flip, or even favoring the Bills. Buffalo has a better point differential, expected record, and Net EPA. But, this is Mahomes we're talking about. The Chiefs and their stud QB just find ways to win — as they have every single game this season. So, if you're giving me KC as a dog, I'm snapping it up.
Check Out The Best NFL Week 11 Promos Here
Chiefs vs Bills Prop Pick
James Cook UNDER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
James Cook has had some big games this year, breaking OVER 80 yards in three games. But, he's also had some duds, too (UNDER 45 yards four times). This week, I'm projecting a dud.
Cook has been decent lately. but his yards per carry have gone down in each of the last two weeks. With his efficiency waning, the Bills RB now faces a Chiefs defense that's been the best in football against opposing running backs. Kansas City has allowed just 52.5 rushing yards per game this season. The Chiefs haven't allowed an individual RB to break 60 yards in the last six weeks.
Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight road games
- Patrick Mahomes has gone UNDER 20.5 rushing yards in six of his last seven road games (he's -110 to go UNDER that mark at Bet365 this week)
- The UNDER has hit in nine of the last 10 Chiefs games against top-10 scoring defenses
- The Chiefs have won eight-straight road games
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights:
