With the 2024 NFL Draft so close we can almost taste it, we’re bringing you dueling mock drafts from our NFL Draft experts Tony Farmer and Nick Holz.
Seven times Tony and Nick landed on the same player going to the same team in Round 1, but there was also a lot of disagreement between their boards for the remaining 25 selections. As you read through these mock drafts you’ll find plenty of ideas for bets to spice up your draft watching experience.
1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC
On what's sure to be a first night full of surprises, the first overall pick is no secret. Sportsbooks have Williams instilled as the overwhelming favorite to hear his name called first on draft night.
Caleb Williams is one of the greatest quarterbacking prospects of the 21st century. Thankfully, Bears General Manager Ryan Poles has finally invested in the type of offensive talent that will allow his rookie quarterback to grow and flourish. With Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet in tow he walks into a ready made Chicago offense as the most talented quarterback the Bears have seen in generations.
🏈 Diving deep into the game of Heisman Trophy winner and #USCTrojans QB Caleb Williams.
— Nick (@HolzSportsCo) August 11, 2023
Fresh off a season with 42 TDs and just 5 INTs, let's break down what makes him such a special talent.
🧵#CalebWilliams #NFL #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/ufOXRzSuQe
Williams arm talent, play-making abilities, and high football IQ give him a Mahomes/Aaron Rodgers-like ceiling.
2024 First Overall Pick Odds
| Player | Odds To Go 1.1 |
|---|---|
| QB Caleb Williams | -20000 |
| QB Jayden Daniels | +7500 |
| QB Drake Maye | +9500 |
| QB J.J. McCarthy | +10000 |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +20000 |
2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
While there was some chatter about the Commanders going with UNC QB Drake Maye in this spot, Tony and Nick both expect the new regime to draft LSU star Jayden Daniels. He has the potential to become a game-breaking dual threat quarterback in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense.
Daniels deep passing and rushing ability could make him a star in Washington. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is currently a -400 favorite to be the second overall pick.
3. New England Patriots - Nick's Pick: QB Drake Maye, UNC
3. New York Giants - Tony’s Pick* (Via New England): QB Drake Maye, UNC
Nick and Tony both think Drake May goes No. 3 overall, but Nick has him landing with the Patriots while Tony thinks New England trades back with the Giants who might be downplaying their eagerness to replace Daniel Jones. At 6’4, 223 pounds, Maye has prototypical NFL size and arm strength either franchise would covet. He also displays the pocket presence and creativity to become a special quarterback. Maye could use a year of seasoning, which may be the plan with Jacoby Brissett in New England and Jones in New York.
4. Arizona Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr. might be the most talented player in the entire draft class and while it’s very possible Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort trades down here, Tony and Nick both think it’s more likely Arizona takes the layup here with Harrison Jr. Junior is a much more explosive athlete than his father, with all of the route running skills and contested catch radius. Harrison Jr. is the type of game-changing prospect who can immediately change the Cardinals offense.
The in air contortion at his size is remarkable pic.twitter.com/vRIFhfEupy
— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) April 4, 2024
5. Minnesota Vikings*- Nick's Pick - Projected trade with Los Angeles Chargers: QB J.j. McCarthy, Michigan
LAC receives No. 11, No. 23, No. 157, Minnesota’s 2025 3rd-round pick for No. 5
5. Los Angeles Chargers - Tony’s Pick: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
2024 NFL Draft Fifth Overall Pick Odds
| Player | Odds To Go 1.5 |
|---|---|
| WR Malik Nabers | +280 |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +340 |
| QB J.J. McCarthy | +340 |
| OT Joe Alt | +340 |
| OT JC Latham | +1100 |
Okay, this is where our drafts start to look drastically different. Tony thinks the Chargers stay put and draft WR Rome Odunze to replace Keenan Allen. New Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has seen plenty of Odunze’s tape after game plannings vs. him before Michigan’s National Championship game. Odunze’s arrival to the Chargers would make QB Justin Herbert the happiest man in Los Angeles.
Nick, thinks the Chargers trade back to accumulate more draft picks (LAC receives No. 11, No. 23, No. 157, Minnesota’s 2025 3rd-round pick) while the Vikings land Harbaugh’s former QB J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy threw 44 touchdowns and nine interceptions while going 27-1 in two seasons at Michigan. While he may not have the “Wow” factor of Williams and Daniels, McCarthy processes and makes decisions quickly. He throws very well on the run and has the short and intermediate accuracy to become a quintessential West Coast quarterback.
6. New York Giants - Nick's Pick: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
New England Patriots* (Via from N.Y. Giants)- Tony's Pick: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
While Tony and Nick both see a WR being selected with pick No. 6, Tony thinks the Patriots (from their hypothetical trade with the Giants) grab LSU WR Malik Nabers, whip Nick sees the Giants standing pat and selecting Odunze. Both of these WRs have serious potential to instantly upgrade whichever offense they land with. Both the Giants and Patriots are completely lacking skill position talent on offense so either of these deletions would address major weaknesses. For what it’s worth, Nabers is +150 to go in this slot, while Odunze is +250.
7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
While conventional wisdom suggests a team like Tennessee with lots of holes to fill should consider trading down and accumulating more picks, both of us think they’ll be happy that Joe Alt fell into their lap. Titans GM Ran Carthon admitted that if certain players were on the board, there’d be no chance they’d trade down and there’s a good chance Alt is on their short list.
Alt has the size and athleticism to lock down the left side of the Tennessee Titans offensive line for the next ten years. The 6’8 321-pounder moves like a much smaller man and has the refined pass blocking skills to develop into a perennial All-Pro. Alt is currently -155 favorite to be selected in this slot.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Nick's Pick: Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
8.) Atlanta Falcons - Tony’s Pick: DT Byron Murphy, Texas
| Player | Odds To Go 1.8 |
|---|---|
| EDGE Laiatu Latu | +250 |
| EDGE Dallas Turner | +250 |
| WR Rome Odunze | +600 |
| DT Byron Murphy | +1400 |
| QB JJ McCarthy | +1400 |
| EDGE Jared Verse | +1600 |
Nick love’s the value on betting an underdog, Verse, to the Atlanta Falcons for the purpose of this NFL Mock Draft. Most prognosticators have Alabama stud Dallas Turner going here. But, Verse would likely have been a top-10 pick last season had he declared. He’s got the size and explosive ability to be a huge contributor in the NFL for a long time. The Florida State standout ran a 4.58 40 with a 1.6 10-yard split to go along with a 10-7 broad jump and a 35 inch vertical at the combine. Verse wins with speed, power and a plethora of pass-rushing moves already in his arsenal. Raheem Morris and co. could easily fall in love with his power at draft him at number. You could take a flyer on the value here with Verse to be the 8th overall pick currently priced at +1600.
Tony also has the Falcons addressing their defensive line by selecting for Byron Murphy (+1100 to go No. 8). Murphy has been picking up steam lately and you can bet him at +160 to be a top-10 selection.
9. Indianapolis Colts * (Via Chicago Bears) - Nick’s Pick: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
CHI receives No. 15, No. 42, No. 151, Indianapolis 2025 2nd-round pick for No. 9
9.) Chicago Bears - Tony’s Pick: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
Nick gets creative in this spot and has Georgia’s Brock Bowers going to the Colts after a hypothetical trade with the Bears who would acquire picks No. 15, 42, 151 and Indianapolis’ 2025 2nd-round pick. Bowers would be a nice toy for Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis after he led the Bulldogs in receiving with 56 catches for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns this year. Bowers is the type of juiced up modern chain mover that could spur Chris Ballard to trade into the top 10. Indy pays a steep price to arm their ascending quarterback with the type of offensive weapon who will instantly raise the ceiling of this offense.
Tony projects the Bears to keep the pick and lock up Dallas Turner who would play opposite Montez Sweat on the defensive line and form one of the best pass rush duos in the league.
10.) New York Jets Nick’s Pick: OT Olumuyuwa Fashanu, Penn State
10.) Las Vegas Raiders* (Trade from N.Y. Jets) Tony’s Pick: - QB JJ. McCarthy, Michigan
It’s easy to see why Nick likes’ Olu to the Jets in this spot as he may have the cleanest pass-blocking sets of any tackle in the 2024 NFL Draft and Jets QBs often looked like pinatas last season. While General Manager Joe Douglas has pulled off some underrated signings this off-season, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are both aging injury risks. Fashanu provides some much needed stability across an offensive line that became a revolving door in 2023.
Tony thinks No. 10 is where the Raiders make their move to jump ahead of the Vikings and Broncos (both QB needy teams) for J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy and Raiders coach Antonio Pierce have said some really nice things about each other in the offseason and Pierce needs a franchise QB desperately.
one of my favorite things with Olu Fashanu (#74) is how quickly he will recognize and react DL twists and games. pic.twitter.com/5MhN0caDBB
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 28, 2024
11.) Los Angeles Chargers* (Via Minnesota Vikings) - Nick's Pick: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
11.) Minnesota Vikings - Tony’s Pick: QB Michael Penix, Washington
While a lot of draft experts see the Vikings trading up for a QB, Tony has them staying put and selecting Washington’s Michael Penix here. Penix has serious injury concerns involving both his upper and lower body, but his ceiling is really high and it might be too much for the Vikings to ignore here.
Nabers excelled at LSU's Pro Day with a stellar 4.35 40-yard dash, 42-inch vertical, and 10-9 broad jump and Nick thinks Justin Herbert will love throwing deep balls to the most explosive receiving threat in the 2024 NFL Draft class.
12.) Denver Broncos - Nick’s Pick: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
12.) Denver Broncos - Tony’s Pick: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
While sportsbooks think QB is the Broncos most likely selection (+175), the No. 12 pick is an awkward spot for a QB needy team because it’s likely too late to get the top-4 QBs and too early for someone like Bo Nix.
Nick thinks Dallas Turner could last until pick No. 12 and that would be a dream come true for the Broncos. Turner is 6'2 with an unreal 82" wingspan, and compares favorably athletically to former All-Pro Von Miller. Tony thinks the Broncos will settle for Bowers after missing out on the top-4 QB sweepstakes.
13.) Las Vegas Raiders - Nick’s Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toldeo
13.) New York Jets* (Trade from Las Vegas) - Tony’s Pick: OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Both Tony and Nick have the Jets addressing the offensive line with their first-round pick (+110), but in different spots because of Tony’s projected Jets trade with the Raiders. Taliese Fuaga would make Aaron Rodgers a lot more comfortable in the pocket and give him time to utilize New York’s skill position threats.
Nick thinks No. 13 is where we see the first CB drafted and it’s a good one in Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell climbed draft boards at the Senior Bowl, before blowing up the Scouting Combine with a 4.33 40 and a 38-inch vertical. He's got excellent change of direction skills with the anticipation to be an impact player in the NFL. He’d immediately steps into a starting spot in the lacking Las Vegas secondary.
14) New Orleans Saints - Nick’s Pick: OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
14) New Orleans Saints - Tony’s Pick: OT Troy Fautanu, Washington
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah recently tweeted “Find me a team that has a bigger need than the Saints at OT” and it’s hard to argue with him. Tony and Nick both have the Saints addressing this glaring hole with big men who project to be ready to start Week 1 and take over for the struggling Trevor Penning.
15.) Chicago Bears* (Via Indianapolis Colts) Nick's Pick: OT Troy Fautanu, Washington
15.) Indianapolis Colts - Tony's Pick: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Tony has Terrion Arnold being the first CB off the board (Nick projects Quinyon Mitchell to be off the board first) here at No. 15 to the Colts, while Nick thinks the Bears will solidify their offensive line with Fautanu who started 29 games at left tackle and has the athletic fluidity to play anywhere along the offensive front.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (Via Seattle Seahawks) Nick’s Pick: CB/S Cooper DeJean, Iowa
16. Seattle Seahawks: Tony’s Pick: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Nick has Fashanu off the board in this spot, but if he’s still hanging around it’d likely be a welcome sight for the Seahawks and Tony projects that marriage at No. 16. Nick projects the Eagles trade up (SEA receives No. 22, No. 50, Philadelphia 2025 3rd-round pick) for the versatile Cooper DeJean. Eagles brass met with the Iowa corner this week, and have to be impressed with athleticism, tackling and football IQ.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (Via Jacksonville Jaguars) Nick’s Pick: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tony’s Pick: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Tony think’s Thomas is the type of elite separator who can elevate the Jaguars offense with Trevor Lawrence to new heights. Thomas possesses explosiveness and deep ball skills to make an immediate impact wherever he lands.
It’s no secret the Steelers are expected to draft an offensive lineman in Round 1 (-350) and Nick is projecting the Steelers trade up for Amarius Mims to fill that void. Mims may be the most physically gifted lineman in this class. He's a colossus at 6'8, 340 pounds with the hands and bend to deter all types of pass rushers on the edge. The Georgia product provides a huge upgrade to the left side of the Steelers offensive line. Mims will be an integral part of protecting Russell Wilson/Justin Fields in 2024.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: OT JC Latham, Alabama
We both like Latham to the Bengals at No 18. Latham is a mauler. At 6'6, 342 pounds the Alabama right tackle has the size and strength to crush everything in his path. Cincinnati has targeted players of similar builds on the offensive line, including former tackle La'el Collins. Look for the Bengals to do the same in the 2024 NFL Draft, as they look to keep franchise passer Joe Burrow healthy.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Nick’s Pick: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
19. Los Angeles Rams: Tony’s Pick: Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
You may have heard the news that all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired this off-season. Tony and Nick both have the Rams addressing their defensive line in the first round.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (Via Steelers) Nick’s Pick: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tony’s Pick: C Graham Barton, Duke
As stated earlier, the Steelers are expected to address the offensive line in Round 1 (-350) and Barton is one of the draft’s safest prospects. He can play multiple positions along the line and Tony thinks that versatility will help the Steelers from a roster building perspective.
Nick has Nate Wiggins going to the Jaguars in this spot after their hypothetical trade with the Steelers. Wiggins is a fluid mover in space, with the speed and length to successfully disrupt receivers down field. His back pedal and transition are elite. He's the Jaguars answer to the plethora of receiving talent making its way to the AFC South.
21. Miami Dolphins: C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Both Tony and Nick see Miami addressing the loss of Robert Hunt in free agency. With a gaping hole up front, the Dolphins lack depth across the interior. With Isiah Wynn now set to start at right guard, Powers-Johnson has the ability to win a starting job the moment he steps onto Miami's practice field.
He dominated one-on-one reps at the Senior and has the stout base and football intelligence of a decade long starter at either center or guard.
22. Seattle Seahawks (Via Philadelphia Eagles): Nick’s Pick: DT Byron Murphy, Texas
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Tony’s Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Cornerback is the most likely position for the Eagles to address first according to oddsmakers (-160) and while Nick had them doing so at pick No. 16 after a trade with Seattle, Tony thinks Philadelphia can stay put and land Quinyon Mitchell. Nick thinks Murphy falls all the way to Seattle here and if he does Seahawks fans should rejoice as he’d be a major upgrade to their defensive front.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (Via Minnesota Vikings) Nick’s Pick: Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
23. Minnesota Vikings: Tony’s Pick: Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri
Tony has the Vikings selecting Darius Robinson who is -400 to go in the First Round. Nick has the Chargers grabbing UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu. Tony and Nick both have Latu staying in Los Angeles (Tony has him going No. 19 to the Rams). The superlatives run strong for a favorite of #DraftTwitter, who impresses with an array of pass-rush moves. He expertly deploys the swim, cross chops, hump, push-pull and Euro-step to keep offensive linemans' heads spinning.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Nick’s Pick: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tony’s Pick: Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
Tony has the Cowboys selecting Robinson who is a twitched up pass rusher with the bend to terrorize NFL offensive tackles for years to come. He’d immediately upgrades a Dallas defense which was lacking a pass rushing threat besides Micah Parsons last season. Nick has Dallas adding a toy for Dak Prescott on the offensive side of the ball.
In case you’re wondering, Dallas is +600 to draft a wide receiver and +950 to select a defensive lineman/edge player with their first pick
25. Green Bay Packers: Nick’s Pick: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
25. Green Bay Packers: Tony’s Pick: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
McKinstry falling into the lap for the Packers would be great for Nick’s mock draft and even better for the Packers. Cornerback is at +235 odds to be the position chosen first by Brian Gutekunst and company, but Tony is going with the chalk offensive lineman selection (-170) and thinks Amarius Mims may still be on the board.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nick’s Pick: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tony’s Pick: DE Jared Verse, Florida State
In Nick’s mock, Verse is long gone (to the Falcons at No. 8), but Tony thinks he’d be a steal for Tampa Bay at pick No. 26. Nick thinks the Buccaneers will instead protect new $100M man Baker Mayfield who was sacked 40 times in 2023. Guyton possesses the awareness, athleticism, and length to be a top-tier NFL offensive tackle.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Nick’s Pick: Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
27. Arizona Cardinals: Tony’s Pick: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
With another first-round pick at No. 4, this projects to be a nice draft for the Cardinals whether they go with Robinson to improve their defensive line or Guyton to improve their offensive line.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell,WR, Texas
Buffalo desperately needs to acquire some skill players after trading Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency.
Mitchell has the athletic profile of difference-making wide receiver in the NFL. He hauled in 11 touchdowns last season, and would step right is as Josh Allen's number one target.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (Via Detroit Lions) Nick’s Pick: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
29. Detroit Lions: Tony’s Pick: CB/S Cooper DeJean, Iowa
If Nick is right, then DeJean will be long gone by the time pick No. 29 rolls around but Tony thinks the Lions can solidify their secondary with him late in Round 1. Nick thinks Penix Jr. will still be on the board even though Tony has him off the board at Pick No. 11.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Nick’s Pick: DE Darius Robinson, Missouri
30. Baltimore Ravens: Tony’s Pick: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Nick's on Darius Robinson to the Ravens with the 30th pick. The Missouri star possesses the inside-out versatility and jarring physical attributes Eric DeCosta and co. love.
Tony thinks the Raves draft a CB with their first pick (+550) and if McKinstry is still around John Harbaugh and company would welcome him with open arms.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Nick’s Pick: OL Graham Barton, Duke
31. San Francisco 49ers: Tony’s Pick: OT Roger Rosengarten, Washington
The 49ers drafting an offensive lineman is sitting at a -150 price. Tony and Nick have the defending NFC champions getting stronger up front with Tony opting for Washington’s Roger Rosengarten while Duke’s Graham Barton is Nick’s choice.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Nick’s Pick: OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Tony’s Pick: WR Xavier Worthy,Texas
Tony thinks the legal troubles for Chiefs WR Rashee Rice might force Kansas City to go with a WR in Round 1, while Nick opts for an offensive line upgrade with the last pick. Suamataia is an explosive athlete (9.4 Relative Athletic Score per @MathBomb) with the length and mass to power defensive lineman out of gaps. He's a little raw in his pass set and will need to be locked in the offensive line coaches' office for a year, but Suamataia has all the tools to be a longtime NFL starter. Kansas City will be searching for an answer at left tackle after choosing not to re-sign veteran Donovan Smith. While right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggled for much of the season. Depth on the offensive line will be crucial as Kansas City chases their third straight Super Bowl Championship.
