The Houston Texans visit the Dallas Cowboys as 7.5 point favorites in Week 11 action on Monday Night Football. Oddsmakers set the total for this one at 42.5 as both offenses have been struggling lately.
The Texans enter this game fresh off a a tough 26-23 loss to the Lions where you could tell they missed wide receiver Nico Collins (more on him below). Dallas enters on a four-game losing streak and off an ugly 34-6 loss to the Eagles.
Keep reading to see how I'm approaching this game from a betting perspective.
Texans vs Cowboys Odds Week 11
Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys, Nov. 18, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +7.5 (-104) | -370 | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | -7.5 (-118) | +295 | U 42.5 (-110) |
As of November 13 at FanDuel
Texans vs. Cowboys Picks Week 11
Dallas U17.5 points (-136)
The Texans should be able to run the ball with Joe Mixon vs. the 28th best run defense according to FTNFantasy's DVOA metric. With Mixon churning out yards and the Cowboys awful running game, I'm expecting Houston to control time of possession and limit the Dallas opportunities.
Even with opportunities, however, this Dallas defense has low expectations. Last week Cooper Rush's longest completion was 10 yards and he only completed 56.5% of his passes vs. an Eagles defense that is worse vs. the pass than the Texans.
DeMeco Ryans defense is getting healthier as Jimmie Ward and Azeez Al-Shaair made their return to the lineup last week. There is nobody on the Dallas offense that scares defenders besides CeeDee Lamb and even he's struggled the last two weeks while battling through injuries.
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Texans vs. Cowboys Prop Pick
CeeDee Lamb longest reception U20.5 (-110)
Dallas quarterback Cooper Rush didn't complete a pass over 10 yards last week. That's bad. The Texans defense has Jimmie Ward back in the secondary and he's known as the "eraser" because he can make up for mistakes in the secondary. According to Outlier, Rush hasn't completed a pass over 29.5 yards in five straight home games and I'm expecting him to focus on shorter passes in this one.
Texans vs Cowboys News
Nico Collins was a game-time decision for Houston's last game and didn't end up playing so there's a good chance he suits up for this one. Collins hasn't played since October 6 and was leading the NFL in receiving yards when we last saw him.
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed this week that Collins didn't have a setback and that he's expected to practice this week.
Texans pass rusher Will Anderson is another name to watch in practice this week. Anderson hasn't played since October 31 and would be a major boost to this Texans defense.
Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter suffered a concussion last week and needs to pass protocol in order to suit up in this one.
Saturday update: Nico Collins got in a full practice Friday which is great news for his hamstring. However, Anderson and Lassiter still haven't practiced at all on Thursday and Friday.
texans vs Cowboys Betting Trends
- CJ Stroud has failed to go over 227.5 pass yards in five of his last six road gams according to Outlier
- Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
- Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games vs. Dallas
- Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 road games
- Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 6 games
