The NFL's Week 11 starts tonight with an NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football.
The Philadelphia Eagles sit as 3.5-point favorites against the Washington Commanders at BetMGM for this one. Bettors absolutely love the favs in this matchup, per BetMGM's data, with 59% of all bets and a whopping 79% of wagered money coming in on the Eagles -3.5.
In terms of props, key Eagles like Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and Saquon Barkley headline the markets for tonight's game.
Below, I'll break down why the bettors love Philly tonight and what else we can learn from the game and prop handle for Week 11's Thursday Night Football game:
Commanders vs Eagles Betting Handle
Eagles vs Commanders, Nov. 14th, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | +3.5 | 41% | 21% | O48.5 | 58% | 66% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 | 59% | 79% | U48.5 | 42% | 34% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
I was kind of shocked to see how significantly bettors side with the Eagles for this one. In fact, the line opened up with Philly as a 3-point favorite and has been bet up to 3.5 (and could keep moving before TNF).
These are two of the best offenses in football, both ranking top-10 in points per game, so it's not a surprise to see most bettors and the money on the OVER.
Why Are Sharps On The Eagles?
We see a majority of all bets on the Eagles for this one, but an even higher percentage of the handle — indicating the sharps and big-money bettors are all over Philly. There are a few reasons I see this to be the case. For starters, I think people are starting to sour on the Commanders, realizing they've beaten just one winning team all season (six of the seven Washington wins have come against teams with four wins or fewer).
Another reason is the injury report. I suspect a lot of plugged-in bettors were monitoring the Marshon Lattimore situation the last few days, and put bets in on the Eagles when it became obvious the Commanders' top corner was not going to play on Thursday. The Commanders are also going to be without LB Nick Bellore and have a few offensive lineman questionable for this contest, too.
Five Most Bet Commanders vs Eagles Player Props
- Jalen Hurts UNDER 9.5 rushing attempts (+100)
- Terry McLaurin UNDER 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
- A.J. Brown OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Saquon Barkley OVER 94.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Kenneth Gainwell OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-125)
I'm a little scared by this top bet. I understand that people see 9.5 rushing attempts for a QB and think it's an easy UNDER, but I'm not so sure. Hurts has reached 10+ carries in three of his last four games and averages 10.3 per game this season. Plus, the Commanders allow the ninth-most QB rushing attempts against this year.
I'm much more in line with the AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley OVERs for TNF. Brown has gone OVER 80 yards in five of his six games this year and Saquon has surpassed his 94.5 rushing yard mark in three of the last four weeks. As I broke down in my Commanders vs Eagles preview, I think the Philly skill position players will have a big day today.
Five most Bet Commanders vs Eagles Players for Anytime TD
- Jalen Hurts (-110)
- A.J. Brown (+115)
- Saquon Barkley (-225)
- PHI Defense/Special Teams (+500)
- Jayden Daniels (+210)
Five Most Bet Commanders vs Eagles Players For First TD
- Saquon Barkley (+380)
- Jalen Hurts (+600)
- A.J. Brown (+750)
- Brian Robinson Jr (+900)
- Terry McLaurin (+1000)
AJ Brown is my best bet for the Anytime TD and first TD markets for this game. He's scored in half his games this season and faces a Commanders defense that's allowed the second-most TDs to WRs this year. You can bet Brown's Anytime TD odds at +115 at BetMGM, but I have seen the number as high as +130 at other books, like Caesars Sportsbook.
