The NFL's Week 12 starts with a fun AFC North matchup between the Steelers and Browns.
Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this contest, but the line has moved down to -3.5 ahead of Thursday Night Football. However, according to BetMGM data, this line movement isn't because of people betting on the Browns, as 90% of all bets and 84% of the money have come in on the Steelers spread, so far.
I'll break down this weird Steelers vs Browns line movement, look into some of the most-bet props for TNF (like George Pickens' OVERs), and what else we can learn from the game and prop handle for Week 12's Thursday Night Football game:
Steelers vs Browns Betting Handle
Steelers vs Browns, Nov. 21st, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3.5 | 90% | 84% | O37.5 | 54% | 50%% |
| Cleveland Browns | +3.5 | 10% | 16% | U37.5 | 46% | 50% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
The public loves Pittsburgh for this matchup and so do I, taking the Steelers on the spread for my best bet for Steelers vs Browns. The Steelers are 17-9 against the spread in divisional matchups since 2020 and are 8-2 ATS this year. Everything points to a Pittsburgh blow out in this one. So, that's why the reverse line movement for this matchup has confused me.
Why Is There Reverse Line Movement for Steelers Vs Browns?
As shown in this BetMGM betting handle breakdown, 90% of the bets and 84% of the money have come in on the Steelers. So, it's quite confusing to see the line move from Pittsburgh -4.5 to -3.5 over the course of this week. Normally, reverse line movement like this signals that one (or a few) particularly respected bettors have placed money on the Browns, but not enough to move the handle in a significant way. Another explanation for this reverse line movement could be the weather report for Thursday's game, which will feature cold and gross conditions that increase the randomness of games — causing the books to push the line closer to even.
Five Most Bet Steelers vs Browns Player Props
- George Pickens OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Russell Wilson OVER 182.5 passing yards (-150)
- Najee Harris OVER 17.5 rushing attempts (-115)
- Jameis Winston OVER 216.5 passing yards (-115)
- Najee Harris OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
From a handicapping perspective, I love the these two most-bet props this week, especially working in conjunction. Since Russell Wilson took over as Pittsburgh's QB1, Pickens has gone above 60 yards in every contest. Wilson has also surpassed 182.5 passing yards in all four games, too.
But, I do think it's interesting to note that the top-five props for this matchup are all OVERs. Casual bettors tend to bet on props more than the pros and they also tend to bet on the OVERs more than UNDERs. For matchups like this where the public loves every OVER, there could be some value to fading the mob and taking some bets against production. This is especially relevant for tonight's matchup, where it's supposed to be 36 degrees farenheight and rainy/snowing during the game. This could force both teams to use different game plans than we're used to.
Five most Bet Steelers vs Browns Players for Anytime TD
- George Pickens (+225)
- PIT Defense/Special Teams (+700)
- Najee Harris (+105)
- David Njoku (+400)
- Nick Chubb (+150)
Five Most Bet Steelers vs Browns Players For First TD
- Najee Harris (+400)
- George Pickens (+750)
- Nick Chubb (+600)
- PIT Defense/Special Teams (+3000)
- Pat Freiermuth (+1500)
Depending on the weather conditions of this game, I think Pickens is probably the best Anytime and First TD bet for tonight's game. Seems like the people agree. Pickens has been the perfect deep ball player for Russell Wilson to pair with, and Cleveland's defense has really struggled to defend deep threats this year. The Browns have allowed the 11th-most yards to opposing receivers and let a similar player to Pickens, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, torch them for 90 yards on two big catches last week.
But, if it ends up being as mucky and rainy as forecasts project, I think taking the value on ground players like Nick Chubb, Najee Harris, or even the Steelers' defense, for touchdowns is a smart play.
