The NFL's Trade Deadline has passed and the league landscape and Super Bowl odds odds have changed.
From Za'Darius Smith joining the Lions to the Browns selling off, I'll break down how the deadline impacts Week 10 lines, 2024 NFL Super Bowl odds, and other futures markets:
Lattimore Trade Moves Commanders Super Bowl Odds
The Commanders' 2024 Super Bowl odds have peaked at +2200 after trading for DB Marshon Lattimore on deadline day. We saw Washington open at +15000 in the championship markets this season and move all the way up to +2500 before last week and +2300 after the Week 9 win over the Giants. But, by bringing in arguably the most impactful player moved at the deadline in Lattimore, the Commie's Super Bowl odds have moved even further — now at +2200.
The move was exactly what Washington needed. They currently rank third in post scored but rank outside the top-10 in points against, with the DB room being a big reason why. The Commanders' two most-used cornerbacks this season (Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil) rank 106th and 61st of 110 qualified corners this season, per PFF. Young DB Emmanuel Forbes also has a 34.9 PFF grade and has been largely unusable this year. Lattimore immediately becomes Washington's top defensive back, and turns them into a legit threat to win some playoff games this year.
Let’s get to work, Marshon 😤 pic.twitter.com/7exDoU0hg2
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 6, 2024
Lions' Week 10 Odds Move After Za'Darius Smith Trade
The Lions' biggest need at the deadline was to replace the injured Aidan Hutchinson with a solid pass rusher, and they did exactly that by trading for Cleveland's Za'Darius Smith. The move didn't shift Detroit's futures odds much, as they were already second in Super Bowl odds, but we did see some Week 10 line movement in the Lions vs Texans game just after the swap.
PFF gives the Lions the ONLY A+ among today's trades:
— Marc Ryan (@MarcRyanOnAir) November 5, 2024
"The Lions were a SB contender in need of a pass-rusher after Aidan's injury. Za'Darius Smith is a HUGE upgrade. His 71.1 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 24th at DE, better than every healthy DE on the roster.
Lions: A+
Browns: B- pic.twitter.com/AvR8GkoiNx
The Lions were three-point favorites (-165 moneyline) on Monday, and moved to 3.5-point favorites and -180 on the moneyline just after the Smith trade broke. They're now up to -190 on the moneyline — which is a steep price — but I still like a -3.5 Lions bet this week, with the Texans banged up at WR and CJ Stroud playing bad because of it. You can check out full picks for this Lions vs Texans matchup here.
Browns' Win Total UNDER Great Bet After Deadline
The 2-7 Browns gave up at the deadline, trading Smith to the Lions after having already moved Amari Cooper. With Jameis Winston coming back to earth last week, I'm not sure how many more games Cleveland can win this season. They've also got the second-hardest remaining schedule in football, with the Saints (this week) as the only easily winnable game I still see on their slate. Cleveland's UNDER 4.5 win total (-115 at Caesers), is a pretty safe bet at this point.
Other 2024 Trade Deadline Winners & Losers
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are 6-2, but they've got a really tough run of games coming up with the Commanders, Ravens, Bengals, and Eagles all coming up in the next six weeks. But, I think Pittsburgh put themselves in a good spot to defend their grip on a playoff spot by acquiring WR Mike Williams and pass rusher Preston Smith.
The Steelers are -385 to make the playoffs right now, at FanDuel, and I think that's a safe bet.
Loser: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals needed serious help on the interior defensive line, linebacker room, and pass rush if they wanted to turn this ship around and push for the playoffs. Instead, they traded a 7th-round pick for 3rd-string RB Khalil Herbert.
It’s gonna be hard for the Bengals to make a serious run if this is the pass rushing unit the rest of the season. https://t.co/yiVoMqkXO9
— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) November 5, 2024
On top of not doing much to improve their own roster, the Bengals actually lost ground in the AFC North on trade deadline day. As mentioned above, the Steelers made some shrewd moves and the Ravens brought in some depth in WR Diontae Johnson and CB Tre'Davious White. The Bengals have two games left against Pittsburgh and play Baltimore this week.
You can bet against the Bengals making the playoffs at -110 right now, at FanDuel.
